Monday, September 5, 2011

Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold-Commentary

[updated 09/06/11] Commentary : I have been a fan of Doug Casey since the appearance of one of his earliest books "Crisis Investing" somewhere around 1982[?] .

In fact that 1 book was the one that opened the door for me into the world of Ayn Rand, Austrian economic theory, anarchism,libertarianism etc. etc. Much of the most useful information for me at the time was to be found in the sources/bibliography at the back of the book; eager for more information, I diligently followed up and read most of the books referenced, including even his science fiction recommendations!

I find myself agreeing with nearly everything Mr Casey says in this 09/04/11 interview with Anthony Wile at the Daily Bell, except for one crucial area: that is: his firm prediction/prophesy for what is coming "down the pipes" in the next 5 years for the US economy.

For around 13 years after reading the aforementioned "Crisis Investing" [probably still the biggest selling book on investing published in the US, but I'm not sure], I preached the Casey gospel, basically, that I knew exactly what was coming next for the US economy [i.e.disaster!].

Although I had previously started to suspect that, given my own understandings of human action, that individuals could not reliably, consistently predict future economic events [as early as 1986], it was not until around 1995 that I finally [painfully!] "woke up" and admitted to myself that neither myself, Doug Casey, nor anyone else [i.e. other "investment advisors", economists, bankers, businessmen, tea-leaf readers,etc.] could reliably, consistently predict future economic events.

And although I still had a strong feeling, given the realities of governments, central banks and the business cycle etc., that some type of financial catastrophe [i.e. deflation, or hyper-inflation] was more or less inevitable at some point in the future, I admitted to myself that the reality was that I had absolutely no idea as to when, whenever whatever was going to happen, would in fact happen!

At that point I gave up trying to predict the economic future for friends/clients, but instead concentrated on showing them simple ways to construct a simple, relatively safe, long-term savings plan that in no way depended on predicting future events.

Fact: Mr Casey Knows He Cannot Reliably,Consistently Predict future Economic Events!

Yes, that's right! Truth be told, Mr Casey is all too aware of his own lack of ability to predict future economic events, I know this for a fact. Why he would insist on attempting to do so in this interview , and to give readers the distinct impression that he can in fact so do, is a question I am not going to attempt to answer- you must draw your own conclusions.

But that might just be "sour grapes" on my part. Apart from that one area of disagreement, Mr Casey makes some excellent points.

P.S. It is worth noting that most of the comments on the interview, where the readers disagree with him, it is usually over his predictions- the readers are just as convinced as to their own ability to reliably predict future economic events as Mr Casey appears to be! Regards, onebornfree.

Article "Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold"

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