Sunday, September 25, 2011

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Just a few thoughts.

The fortunate [or unfortunate, depending on how you look at it], truth is that nobody can reliably, consistently predict future economic scenarios, [inflation, hyper-inflation, recession, deflation etc.]

So although I personally lean towards a possible real deflation and deflationary depression merely on instinct/gut feeling [deflation defined as a situation where the worldwide demand to hold and not spend US $'s and US treasury debt consistently outstrips the available supply of US $'s], I know that those predicting inflation , or even the imminent return of "good times" , have just as much chance of being right, and that my own instincts could be way, way off track.

Of course, just like myself, they have as much chance of being wrong as well :-) .

One thing's for sure- people who rely on charts that purport to show what happened before - and therefor what happens next [eg Elliot Wave theorists, Kondratieff Wave theorists , etc. etc., ] are no better at predicting the economic future than "economists", "investment advisors" , "portfolio managers" or your average tea- leaf reader or astrologist.

In light of the fundamental principles of human action, the belief that one can successfully and consistently predict an economic future based on "expert" interpretation of arbitrary figures, points and lines drawn on a chart or graph that supposedly represent the economic past is, to put it mildly, deeply flawed.*

In my opinion, savings and investment wisdom starts from the assumption that no-one can reliably predict future economic events, and builds from that assumption.
, Regards, onebornfree.

* If you would like to know more about these principles, and exactly why they make any wave theory more or less redundant, let me know . [onebornfree at yahoo dot com]

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