Sunday, September 25, 2011

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Just a few thoughts.

The fortunate [or unfortunate, depending on how you look at it], truth is that nobody can reliably, consistently predict future economic scenarios, [inflation, hyper-inflation, recession, deflation etc.]

So although I personally lean towards a possible real deflation and deflationary depression merely on instinct/gut feeling [deflation defined as a situation where the worldwide demand to hold and not spend US $'s and US treasury debt consistently outstrips the available supply of US $'s], I know that those predicting inflation , or even the imminent return of "good times" , have just as much chance of being right, and that my own instincts could be way, way off track.

Of course, just like myself, they have as much chance of being wrong as well :-) .

One thing's for sure- people who rely on charts that purport to show what happened before - and therefor what happens next [eg Elliot Wave theorists, Kondratieff Wave theorists , etc. etc., ] are no better at predicting the economic future than "economists", "investment advisors" , "portfolio managers" or your average tea- leaf reader or astrologist.

In light of the fundamental principles of human action, the belief that one can successfully and consistently predict an economic future based on "expert" interpretation of arbitrary figures, points and lines drawn on a chart or graph that supposedly represent the economic past is, to put it mildly, deeply flawed.*

In my opinion, savings and investment wisdom starts from the assumption that no-one can reliably predict future economic events, and builds from that assumption.
, Regards, onebornfree.

* If you would like to know more about these principles, and exactly why they make any wave theory more or less redundant, let me know . [onebornfree at yahoo dot com]

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



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More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, September 5, 2011

Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold-Commentary

[updated 09/06/11] Commentary : I have been a fan of Doug Casey since the appearance of one of his earliest books "Crisis Investing" somewhere around 1982[?] .

In fact that 1 book was the one that opened the door for me into the world of Ayn Rand, Austrian economic theory, anarchism,libertarianism etc. etc. Much of the most useful information for me at the time was to be found in the sources/bibliography at the back of the book; eager for more information, I diligently followed up and read most of the books referenced, including even his science fiction recommendations!

I find myself agreeing with nearly everything Mr Casey says in this 09/04/11 interview with Anthony Wile at the Daily Bell, except for one crucial area: that is: his firm prediction/prophesy for what is coming "down the pipes" in the next 5 years for the US economy.

For around 13 years after reading the aforementioned "Crisis Investing" [probably still the biggest selling book on investing published in the US, but I'm not sure], I preached the Casey gospel, basically, that I knew exactly what was coming next for the US economy [i.e.disaster!].

Although I had previously started to suspect that, given my own understandings of human action, that individuals could not reliably, consistently predict future economic events [as early as 1986], it was not until around 1995 that I finally [painfully!] "woke up" and admitted to myself that neither myself, Doug Casey, nor anyone else [i.e. other "investment advisors", economists, bankers, businessmen, tea-leaf readers,etc.] could reliably, consistently predict future economic events.

And although I still had a strong feeling, given the realities of governments, central banks and the business cycle etc., that some type of financial catastrophe [i.e. deflation, or hyper-inflation] was more or less inevitable at some point in the future, I admitted to myself that the reality was that I had absolutely no idea as to when, whenever whatever was going to happen, would in fact happen!

At that point I gave up trying to predict the economic future for friends/clients, but instead concentrated on showing them simple ways to construct a simple, relatively safe, long-term savings plan that in no way depended on predicting future events.

Fact: Mr Casey Knows He Cannot Reliably,Consistently Predict future Economic Events!

Yes, that's right! Truth be told, Mr Casey is all too aware of his own lack of ability to predict future economic events, I know this for a fact. Why he would insist on attempting to do so in this interview , and to give readers the distinct impression that he can in fact so do, is a question I am not going to attempt to answer- you must draw your own conclusions.

But that might just be "sour grapes" on my part. Apart from that one area of disagreement, Mr Casey makes some excellent points.

P.S. It is worth noting that most of the comments on the interview, where the readers disagree with him, it is usually over his predictions- the readers are just as convinced as to their own ability to reliably predict future economic events as Mr Casey appears to be! Regards, onebornfree.

Article "Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold"

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

Nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large. Internet posts are therfor not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I likewise have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make at this site they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom