Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Mark Tier on Effective Investing, Where the World Is Headed and Why Financial Literacy Helps

Onebornfree commentary: for myself, the best part of this long but highly informative interview of investor Mark Tier [conducted by The Daily Bell], is his observation of the extreme importance of investor psychology in all successful investing/speculating.

Indeed, as an educational service, Financial Safety Services spends most of its time with clients analyzing their individual psychologies/belief systems [i.e their preconceptions, assumptions and fundamental beliefs about markets, economics, human action etc. etc.] , in order to try to help them achieve better results with their speculations.

Mr Tier also provides a link to a short investment psychology test he invented that attempts to analyze your own strengths and weaknesses. It is well worth a "go", as is the entire interview.

In fact I agree with just about everything Mr Tier [who I had never heard of before] says in this interview [!] , so much so that if you read anything in it you do not agree with, feel free to email me at : onebornfree at yahoo dot com and we can perhaps discuss your questions/problems/observations/ disagreements.


Link to entire Daily Bell Mark Tier Interview here

About Mark Tier :" Mark Tier is an Australian based in Hong Kong partly because “paying taxes is against my religion.” Founder and (until 1991) publisher of the investment newsletter World Money Analyst, he’s the author of Understanding Inflation, How To Get A Second Passport, The Nature of Market Cycles and The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros. His latest works are entirely outside the investment field: When God Speaks for Himself: The Words of God You’ll Never Hear in Church or Sunday School (written with George Forrai), and the just-published Trust Your Enemies, a political thriller, a story of power and corruption, love and betrayal − and moral redemption ..."


Regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


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More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, February 27, 2012

Your 100 per cent. Chance of Being Robbed by Your Government

"....So when the government tells us it’s protecting us from the world’s most ruthless criminals, we ought to wonder if perhaps we need to be protected from criminals a little closer to home. The chances of your being harmed by terrorists are mathematically minute. The chance of your being robbed by your own government? That’s easy: 100 per cent."

A sobering quote from from an article by the the great, and now [sadly] deceased conservative writer Joseph Sobran. [Such a shame that Mr Sobran, who died of complications from type 2 diabetes, never understood that the entire, government controlled medical establishment whose treatments he never even questioned,or more accurately, his faith in that whole nasty morass of drugs and regulations and regulated "treatments" , is what actually killed him. Any person with an ounce of sense outside of that controlled establishment who understood the ultimate causes of type 2 diabetes [ heck even myself!] could have easily shown him how to "cure" his condition.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Why Variable Rate Mortgages Are Best-[or "Do Ya Feel Lucky, Punk?]"

An interesting question recently came up at an internet forum I sometimes read, regarding the advantages/disadvantages of fixed or variable rate bank loans. Here is the original question as posted:

"If you were forced at gunpoint to take out a loan now what kind it would be?.......
........Normally I would not be in doubt at all, I would say go for a fixed rate. However, normally you could get a loan on decent terms, so by going in for a fixed rate you would be locking in a decent interest rate. But with loans so expensive now and the banks particularly hostile to fixed rate loans, going for one sounds a lot like paying extra to lock in a high interest rate."


The questioner then goes on to list current examples of both fixed and what he/she believes to be variable rate loans . Source




"Do Ya Feel Lucky, Punk?"

Onebornfree Commentary: Why Variable Rate Loans Are Probably Best

Taking out a fixed rate loan because a borrower believes that the money paid back per unit will be worth less than the money borrowed, is essentially a prediction of future inflation, using the money borrowed as a "surefire" bet on that occurrence.

A truly variable rate loan however [most are not- you have to check the fine print to be sure], is not an attempt to predict future economic events and remains neutral in economic outlook, which makes it far more "user friendly" if instead of inflation, systemic deflation hits, when each unit of currency that the borrower must pay back is increasingly worth more, not less, and where a fixed rate might therefor cause severe financial distress to the borrower.

Since human action theory reveals that no one [not even the banks] can reliably, consistently predict future economic events, [therefore further future deflation is still a distinct possibility] the question for the fixed rate borrower would appear to be :"Do ya feel lucky, punk?"

Regards, [and happy borrowing!] Financial Safety Services.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. James Rickards Interview

[Financial Safety Services article commentary:

This is an interesting interview of "A Wall Street pro named James Rickards ", for a number of reasons, two of which are:

1] his belief that the ownership of large amounts of US Federal debt by the Chinese government is not the threat to the U.S. that it is often perceived to be.

2] his belief that the Euro, despite present appearances, is ultimately a far stronger fiat currency than the $US.

While I am not saying he is right or wrong in either case [or in any other instance], hopefully these and other expressed opinions of his might at least give you pause for thought if you presently steadfastly believe whatever it is you steadfastly believe our economic future will be.

As always, I maintain that the economic future remains largely unknown, and that therefor the best way to protect long term savings is via a savings plan that deliberately avoids any slant towards any imagined future economic scenario.

Speculations?

On the other hand, if you are lucky enough to have money that you could afford to lose, I can see no harm in using a little of that to "take a flyer" on any one, or all of his predictions, assuming you can see reasonable reward/risk ratios [i.e equal to, or greater than 100:1], and can establish psychologically reasonable buy in prices, stop losses etc. etc.

Happy speculating, Regards , Financial Safety Services]



Euro Pacific Precious Metals' CEO Peter Schiff often talks about competitive devaluation of currencies as the main driver behind our gold and silver investments. Recently, Peter sat down with James to get his perspective on what's behind these currency wars, and find out what he recommends investors do to preserve their wealth through this tumultuous time.

Peter Schiff: You portray recent monetary history as a series of currency wars – the first being 1921-1936, the second being 1967-1987, and the third going on right now. This seems accurate to me. In fact, my father got involved in economics because he saw the fallout of what you would call Currency War II, back in the '60s. What differentiates each of these wars, and what is most significant about the current one?

James Rickards: Currency wars are characterized by successive competitive devaluations by major economies of their currencies against the currencies of their trading partners in an effort to steal growth from those trading partners.

While all currency wars have this much in common, they can occur in dissimilar economic climates and can take different paths. Currency War I (1921-1936) was dominated by a deflationary dynamic, while Currency War II (1967-1987) was dominated by inflation. Also, CWI ended in the disaster of World War II, while CWII was brought in for a soft landing, after a very bumpy ride, with the Plaza Accords of 1985 and the Louvre Accords of 1987.

What the first two currency wars had in common, apart from the devaluations, was the destruction of wealth resulting from an absence of price stability or an economic anchor.

Interestingly, Currency War III, which began in 2010, is really a tug-of-war between the natural deflation coming from the depression that began in 2007 and policy-induced inflation coming from Fed easing. The deflationary and inflationary vectors are fighting each other to a standstill for the time being, but the situation is highly unstable and will "tip" into one or the other sooner rather than later. Inflation bordering on hyperinflation seems like the more likely outcome at the moment because of the Fed's attitude of "whatever it takes" in terms of money-printing; however, deflation cannot be ruled out if the Fed throws in the towel in the face of political opposition............" Original,complete article here.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, February 6, 2012

It Is Safe to Resume Ignoring the Prophets of Doom ... Right?

Commentary: Financial Safety Rule #1 says: nobody can reliably, consistently predict future economic events. However, some people get it right occasionally [heck, in those days even I suspected that something big might happen to the housing market given the extreme exuberance everywhere!] . This was probably Mr Roubini's big chance at lasting fame and fortune in the world of economic seers. More than likely, he'll never get anything so right again in his entire lifetime, but that most likely will not deter many from believing his future crystal ball pronouncements. [Lesson to NYT article writer, and for us- perhaps "always expect the unexpected "? ]. Regards, Financial Safety Services

Extract: "I remember the first time I interviewed a relatively unknown economist named Nouriel Roubini. It was 2005, and as we sat in his New York University office, he laid out his scary vision of the future. Roubini is a specialist in the flow of money around the world and the crises that (sometimes) result. But on that day he wanted to talk about the U.S. housing market.

Homeowners, he said, had become too used to financing their lifestyles with money siphoned from overvalued homes. This housing bubble would pop, he warned, and send the world into a vicious recession, possibly even a depression. I remember leaving his office both stunned and confused. Only after calling a few leading economists was I reassured that this Roubini guy was expressing a fringe view that merited little attention. Like a lot of reporters that year, I turned around a tongue-in-cheek story about Dr. Doom and his scary (but probably best ignored) world view. Oops!...." Original article here