The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

                              

                                          Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                                     email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance].

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

An Important Question For You, Dear Reader :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via the makeup of your own current savings/investment plans and choices? [or via the choices of your financial planner, investment advisor, or via an economist or related?] If so, then you are unknowingly endangering your long term savings.

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples:

The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For The Stock Market:

                    Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, 5 year performance [log. scale]

Real World Fact:  If you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

2] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Gold :

                  10 year Gold bullion $US price per 1 oz. London A.M. fix [log. scale]

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver etc. might actually all decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

3] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Cash and Cash Equivalents [TreasuryBonds,Bills etc.]:

                              30 year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates 2000 -2019

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

4] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Bitcoin and other Crypto-Currencies:

                                           Bitcoins per $US, 2015-19

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

5] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Real Estate, Art, Oil, a Private Business  etc. etc.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

6] : One More Real World Fact :  

Despite the fact that the big picture economic future must always remain unknown, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 


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email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

                              Extra graphs of possible interest: 

                    Federal Reserve Monetary Base[ MB] 2014-19 [ Log. scale]

                   US Government 3 month Treasury Bill interest rates 1980-2018

                          U.S government gross debt, 1980-2019 [log. scale]

Percentage of US Federal debt held by foreign institutions,1980-2019, 

[log. scale]

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             email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

3 Experts Predict Stock Market Collapse in 2017

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oX_Z9iAU4YA

A Fact of Reality: Beware of All "Experts" Economic Predictions 

An unfortunate fact of reality for the saver/investor is that no person, system, or computer program can reliably and consistently predict future economic events, or the future prices of anything. Which means that relying on the predictions of these "experts" [or others] in order to make your precious savings safer, or as a way to make money, is a fools game. [Of course, you are free to stay in denial of this fact of reality for as long as you wish :-) ]

See:"Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Bonds, Bitcoin etc.] "

See also: "George Soros Versus "The World's Best Kept Investment Secret" 

Regards, Financial Safety Services
All questions/comments: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom


                                   Fig.1: Gold price versus $US- 2007-2017. Monthly, Log scale.

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                                          Addendum: Additional Financial Graphs:


 Fig.2: Federal Reserve Monetary base [MB], 1960-2017, monthly,log. scale, none-seasonally adjusted.

     Fig.3:Federal Reserve 30 year bond yields,constant maturity, monthly, none-seasonally adjusted. 1976 -2017


Fig.4:Federal Reserve 3 month T-bill yields, constant maturity, monthly, none-seasonally adjusted.1976-2017.

    Fig.5: Federal Reserve M1 money stock, billions of $'s,  monthly, none-seasonally adjusted, log. scale. 1960- 2017.

Fig.6: Federal Reserve M2 money stock, billions of $'s,  monthly, none-seasonally adjusted, log. scale. 1960- 2017.

 Fig.7:Federal Reserve MZM money stock, billions of $'s,  monthly,none-seasonally adjusted,
 log. scale. 1960- 2017.

             Fig. 8: Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index closing prices, monthly, 2012-17 . Log. scale

            Fig.9: Dow Jones Industrials Stock Index, Monthly closing prices, 2012-17. Log scale.

            Fig. 10: NADAQ Composite Stock Index closing prices, monthly, 2012-17. Log. scale

                           Fig.11: Exchange rate: $US  versus  1 Euro, monthly. 1998- 2017


                                                                             END

                          

Do Not"Invest"In Bitcoin! [Or:How to Safely Profit With Bitcoin Etc.]

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 Fig 1: Bitcoin's performance record - 2010- 17 Image Source
            [Click on image to enlarge].



Do Not"Invest"In Bitcoin![Or:How To Safely Profit With Bitcoin and Other Crypto-Currencies].


Introduction:

Bitcoin and other similar alternative, "internet currencies", or "crypto-currencies", have made remarkable gains since its/their appearance on the market a few years ago, which means that many people will now be tempted to "invest" in these relatively new market phenomena in the hopes of making large profits [nothing wrong with that :-) ]. Many "early bird" adopters have already  made large profits [mostly "on paper", I'm guessing], and  some of these persons now spend considerable time and effort in exhorting others to buy Bitcoin, " now, before its too late", so that they too can enjoy  similarly large profits.

What is Bitcoin? - here is a short , basic introduction for "newbies". 

 Also see this site, specially created for Bitcoin "newbies". [p.s. I count myself in the "newbie"category].

   Fig.2 : Gold bullion prices 2012-17, log. scale
          [Click on image to enlarge]

A Bitcoin Reality Check Fact For You : 

Fact: The Financial/Economic Future Always Remains Unknown and Unknowable!

.............which means that nobody, not you, me, your favorite investment advisor, fund manager, economist [of any "stripe"] or banker, or anyone else,  can definitively know where Bitcoin is headed from here. The same applies to  any other "investment", be it stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate, or whatever. 

Therefor, in light of that stark reality, I would humbly suggest that if you seriously want to try to  profit from Bitcoin etc., that  instead of "investing" in it, that you only "speculate" in it, or in any of the other 100's [ if not 1000's] of new digital "crypto-currencies", assuming you realistically have the spare cash to risk[see below]. 

"Investing, Or Speculating"? - What's The Diff.?

What's the difference between "investing" in Bitcoin etc. and "speculating" in it? -you might well ask.

The difference is actually very important, and can mean the difference between losing most of everything you've managed to save for the future to date  [e.g. precious long term savings/retirement money] if everything goes wrong, and, on the other hand, only losing  a little "gambling", or betting/speculation money ["play" money if you like] if everything went wrong, while  your precious long term savings  remain safe and unaffected.  

                 Fig.3:Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index 2012-17,log. scale.
                                         [click on image to enlarge]

    

                  Fig.4: NASDAQ Composite Stock Index, 2012-17, log. scale
                                          [Click on image to enlarge]

How To Safely Speculate In Bitcoin and Other "Crypto Currencies":

Step [1]: Divide your savings into two distinct, separate categories:

i] Money/savings you cannot afford to lose under any circumstance [e.g. saving for retirement money]. This money should be kept in a balanced long term savings plan that you believe to be safe, maybe similar to this one. 

ii] Money you can realistically afford to lose [ play money, gambling/betting money]. 

N.B. If you have no money you can afford to lose then you have no money to speculate/gamble/bet with, which  means that you have no business making dangerous bets on Bitcoin, or on anything else [gold, or stocks, or bonds, or whatever] with any part of the money you cannot afford to lose .

Accumulating Money You Can Afford To Lose [If You Don't Have Any Right Now]

If you have no money you could afford to risk losing that you can  speculate with,  and if you still wish to speculate on Bitcoin or whatever at some time in the near future, you'll first have to accumulate/save  enough extra savings over and above your estimated long term savings needs; extra savings which you would not miss if your Bitcoin bet did not make a profit, as your gambling losses would still be safely insulated from all of your long term savings and would therefor not damage them in any way.

Do  You Already  Have Money You Could Afford To Lose on a Bitcoin Bet?

Even though we are talking about money you can afford to lose, do you really want to lose all of it on a bad bet on Bitcoin [ or whatever]?  Of course not. On the other hand, if you don't really care if you lose it all, then by all means, "go ahead, make my day", as the saying goes :) , and just barrel on into Bitcoin, blind, right now. [I sincerely wish you good luck].

Bitcoin Reality Check [2]:

Assuming that you'd rather make money on your bet[s] than lose it all in "one fell swoop", then there are many factors that you will need to take into consideration before placing your bet, in order to maximize profits and at the same time protect yourself against undue losses.

"Off the top of my head", I know of at least a  dozen facts about speculating and speculations that you need to be fully aware of if you wish to be a successful speculator and do not just want to just rely on blind "lady luck" and "barrel on" in there.

Here are three [A,B & C]  that might be worth considering:

A]: Speculation Is Largely an Intuitive "Art"- Not a "Science": 

Successful speculation is intuitive, to a far greater degree than most successful speculators are even willing to admit.  

B]: Successful,Professional Speculators Actually Lose Bets More Often Than They Win Them: 

......however, their winning bets are large enough in the long run to more than offset their many losses by a considerable amount.  This is often accomplished via the use of strategies similar to the ones I hint at at the end of this post, plus others. 

C]:There Will Always Be Other Opportunities:

There will always be other opportunities to speculate coming up in the future - so do not feel pressured into "having to" speculate in Bitcoin and related. Don't listen to people who try to influence/pressure  you  via "once in a lifetime opportunity"  type arguments for Bitcoin, nor for anything else.

So, Do You Seriously Want To Safely Make Money In Bitcoin? 

Although there can be no absolute guarantees in speculating, in order to try to maximize your chances of safely making some serious moolah by speculations in Bitcoin  etc. instead of losing some/all of that moolah, you will probably need far more specific facts/information about the art of speculation than I have chosen to give away for free, here.[ Hint, hint]

 For example: how to establish reasonable risk/reward ratios; where/how to set "stop-losses" and "trailing stop-losses; establishing a risk/reward ratio,how to buy into a rising [or falling] trend; what to do if a better [non-Bitcoin] opportunity  presents itself in the future, etc. etc.

Because, after all, even works of art such as financial speculations need some clearly defined borders/parameters, in order to maximize the chances for significant profits, while at the same time minimizing the risks of losing significant sums that would hurt the speculator. 

Blind Luck Anyone?

Failing all that, I wish you [blind] good luck with all your blind speculations in Bitcoin, or whatever. [Maybe you naturally have "the feel":-) ] .

Regards, onebornfree. Financial Safety Services.

Related post:"Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?"

All questions/comments: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

                          Financial Safety Services Disclaimer

                              Addendum: Additional Financial Graphs:

     Fig. 5: Federal Reserve Monetary Base totals, 2012-17. Log scale.
                               [Click on image to enlarge]

                      Fig. 6: Federal Reserve M1 totals, 2012-17. Log scale.
                                       [Click on image to enlarge]

             Fig. 7: Federal Reserve M2 totals, 2012-17. Log scale.
                              [Click on image to enlarge]

        Fig. 8: Federal Reserve MZM totals, 2012-17. Log scale.

                          [Click on image to enlarge]

     Fig. 9: Exchange rates, $ US vs. the Euro 2012-17. Log scale.
                         [Click on image to enlarge]

    Fig. 10: Interest rates: US 3 month T-Bill 2012-17.
                             [Click on image to enlarge]

    Fig. 11: Interest rates: US 30 year T-bond 2012-17.
                    [Click on image to enlarge]


                                                        END

George Soros Versus "The World's Best Kept Investment Secret"

George Soros Versus "The World's Best Kept Investment Secret":

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[n.b. this post is in no way an endorsement by myself of Mr. Soros, nor of his  personal political philosophy and goals]

Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services commentary: 

Now you might think that a person as rich as Mr Soros would have access to the best financial/investment advice in the world, but apparently not. He's reported to have lost around $1 billion in the Brexit outcome, and another $1 billion betting against the "Trump bump" [ the temporary increase in US stock indices after Trumps win]. He obviously has no idea of what amounts to "the world's best kept investment secret". Any reader out there who personally knows Mr Soros :-) ; please ask him to contact me so I can enlighten/elucidate him on that secret, so that he would never again suffer these types of losses. :

George Soros lost nearly $1 billion when Donald Trump won:

"Billionaire hedge-fund manager and Hillary Clinton supporter George Soros bet against the stock market’s reaction to the election of President-elect Donald Trump and lost almost $1 billion in the process, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday"............:
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/01/13 ... trump-won/

"The Trump Bump": The Standard & Poors 500 Index- October 2016 -January 2017

[Click on image to enlarge]

"How George Soros Lost Money In a Bad Brexit Bet":

"Perhaps George Soros should go back into retirement.

It appears the 85-year-old lost money betting that the British pound would rise in the wake of the Brexit vote. A Soros spokesperson confirm to Bloomberg that the octogenarian's fund was "long" the pound even after the vote. The fact that Soros lost money betting on the pound is surprising not only because he famously made a billion dollars "breaking the pound" back in 1992, but also because he predicting a drop in the sterling would happen...": http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/soros-pound-brexit/

British Pound/ $US Exchange Rates, June 01, 2016 - January 2017 [Click on image to enlarge]

["Brexit" referendum was held on 23 June 2016]

Can't Afford To Lose Big Like Mr Soros, Dear Reader? 

To perhaps entirely avoid your own financial ruin, please go  here for free information!

                      Above: US Standard and Poors 500 Index, '07-'17. [Click on image to enlarge]

Regards, Onebornfree
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom.
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