Showing posts with label financial safety. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial safety. Show all posts

Thursday, November 30, 2017

"Blowhard" Predicts $1 Million BTC By 2020!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epObQ1AujyQ

"John McAfee, founder of McAfee Associates a well-known software company  has always been Bullish on Bitcoin, in fact, he has even been confrontational on the fact.

In July, with a lot of fear and uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin ahead of its Aug. 1 chain split, McAfee came forward and stated boldly that he was willing to stake his name and up to $10 mln on a bet that the Bitcoin price will move above $500,000 within three years or he would "eat my d**k on national television."

That prediction was seen as ludacris at the time, and many were left wondering how his on-screen promise would play out - however, now that Bitcoin has crossed $11,000, McAfee is not sitting back smugly, but rather raising the bar.

The outspoken tech mogul has now said:

“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 mln by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong.”


            [ obf sez: Too funny! Mr McAfee used some sort of supposedly "predictive" model of his to predict a future price, but he got it wrong, and so now, of course [:-) ], he has a new model to use! Whodathunkit? What could be simpler ? This "techno-narcissist" knows all! [because his latest model is infallible].

The underlying psychology of this person is no different from any other person using an economic model, be they an "investment advisor", an economist or something else. Just another know-it-all [great for entertainment value :-) ].

Summary: "Houston , You Have a Problem"

And so, dear reader, if you really believe that Mr McAfee [or any other "techno-geek", let alone any regular "investment expert"] can successfully, consistently predict the financial/economic future, via the implementation of some secret [ no doubt algorithm- rich] formula, then I would suggest that you, like Mr McAfee himself, have a serious problem and should seek help.



                     
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Regards, Financial Safety Services: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom












Sunday, November 20, 2016

The Strange, Ongoing Contradictions of Bill Bonner

 Financial Safety Services Disclaimer



                                                          ]
                                                                  Mr.Bill Bonner


Here's Bill Bonner [one of my two favorite financial writers- the other being Doug Casey, blatantly contradicting himself regarding the future of the economy.

First he predicts a depression : "Why Negative Rates Can’t Stop the Coming Depression"...

... then he says in the article itself: "The future is always unknown."


Hmmm, so, we are [1] in for a depression but [2] no one can predict the future ? [I agree with the last part, although someone out there may get lucky, even possibly Mr Bonner himself, I suppose].


To try to make my own position a little clearer:

Depressions/deflations , have happened in the past, so they _will_occur in the futre at some point, regardless of what some might say; no differently than inflation, recession, "stagflation", economic "good times", or whatever else, have occurred in the past and will/must therefor continue to naturally occur in the future - its just that none of those economic conditions can be reliably predicted ahead of time.

So Mr Bonner is right in one sense- there will be a depression at some point in the future, however [and ignoring the fact that I have instinctively "leaned" towards a deflationary scenario for a number of years in my conversations with clients and others], there can be no guarantee that that "the greater depression" will occur in yours, or my, lifetimes. Which is why you need a neutral [i.e. none-predictive] long term savings plan for the money you cannot afford to lose, in my humble opinion.

Regards, onebornfreeatyahoo



Friday, November 18, 2016

What’s Next: Deflation, Inflation, or Hyperinflation?




Bill Bonner [in 2015] : "Recently, one of our dear readers summarized the three major points of view, along with one minor one:

Deflation Camp

Harry Dent is in line with the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Money printing causes financial bubbles, distorts the economy, and is therefore counterproductive.
Like Bob Prechter (I don’t follow him closely, but his argumentation sounds similar), Dent bets on deflation and depression.

Fighting debt deleveraging and demographics is like putting yourself in front of a tsunami.
In such an environment, the U.S. dollar would gain purchasing power, and gold would underperform significantly. (Harry sees it back to $700 in 2018-19.)

Cash/T-bills/short-term Treasurys are the place to be. Rates will stay low for very long.

Inflation Camp

Jim Rickards’ thesis – “inflate debt away via a massive issuance of SDRs after China has joined the club” – is also very credible.

World currencies are massively diluted via issuance of SDRs, which serve only the powers that be. Rather than a new gold standard, this is the solution to Triffin’s dilemma (more flexibility for the elite).

[Triffin’s dilemma describes the constant need for the global reserve currency issuer – in this case, the U.S. – to supply the world with reserve currency by way of a long-term trade deficit. Eventually, argued Yale economist Robert Triffin, this would lead to a loss of confidence in the reserve currency.]

Citizens are excluded/not allowed to own SDRs. Their purchasing power shrinks. They don’t know who to blame.

The IMF does not consist of elected officials, and the majority of the population doesn’t even know it plays a role in creating inflation. And they can pretend that they have to save the world, too. (Remember the Greek bailout?)

Hyperinflation Camp

Shadow Stats’ John Williams is having a really hard time fighting for his ideas. He is right about the “CPI-CP Lie” and the current true state of the economy. But whoever invests along his ideas is running out of capital to stay in the game.

Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney are on a similar line. The problem with them is that they have a conflict of interest with their businesses. But I have no doubt about their integrity: They do/live what they say.

Deflation to Hyperinflation Camp

I recall an interview with Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg TV in 2009 when he said, “We will go from deflation to hyperinflation without seeing inflation.”

Tokyo to Buenos Aires

Our view is that Taleb will be proved right.
Back in 2009, we predicted “Tokyo… then Buenos Aires” – a Japan-like deflation, followed by Argentine-like hyperinflation.

Most likely, there will be no stop in between for moderate levels of inflation.

Inflation, as economist Milton Friedman observed, is “always and everywhere” a monetary phenomenon. But hyperinflation is a political phenomenon.

It is caused by those same authorities the masses think they can trust. When they are threatened, they will protect themselves by printing money on a scale we haven’t seen since the War Between the States. (Consumer prices in Richmond, Virginia, had risen 6,700% by the end of the war.)

There are times when printing money seems like the best course of action – especially for the people running the printing press. It may not do the common man any good, but it gets the feds out of a jam."

http://www.bonnerandpartners.com/whats-next-deflation-inflation-or-hyperinflation/


Financial Safety Services Commentary:

Fact: For fundamental reasons, to do with human action and markets,_nobody_ , but nobody, can reliably and consistently predict future economic events; not Dent, Schiff, Prechter, nor Taleb, yourself,  or anyone else.

Fact: It’ not necessary to be able to predict the economic future to safeguard one’s long term savings from an unknown , and unknowable, economic future:

Regards, onebornfreeatyahoo
                                          
                                  Financial Safety Services Disclaimer


Friday, July 4, 2014

The Stockholm Syndrome Vs. You,Your Money,Your Freedom


[Financial Safety Services and Freedom Network commentary: this excellent article by world traveller Simon Black does a good job of explaining some of the psychological barriers which prevent a person from making the important step of moving at least some portion of their own finances and business dealings offshore- if not offshore, to at least get some of it outside of any part of the financial system within the country you presently live in. If you would like to discuss specific aspects of the article via email, Skype , or in person, please let me know at:onebornfreeatyahoodotcom, and I'll see what I can do. Regards, onebornfree.]

                                             


 "

In August 1973, Jan-Erik Olsson walked into the main branch of Kreditbanken bank in central Stockholm, Sweden and attempted to rob the place at gunpoint. 



He failed miserably. 

When the police arrived in short order, Olsson opened fire and injured one of the cops. This only escalated the situation. 



In desperation, Olsson took four people hostage, and they were held for six days at the bank until police finally used gas to subdue the captors. 



This sort of thing happens all the time, so it's hardly noteworthy. But what's unique about this event is that the hostages later said they actually felt safer with their captors than the police. 



The victims had, in fact, become emotionally attached to Olsson and his partner, to the point that they even publicly defended the pair after the ordeal was over. 



As it turns out, this is actually fairly common. Psychologists call this 'Stockholm Syndrome' after the Kreditbanken robbery; the term denotes a traumatic, positive bond that forms between captors and hostages.

 

To those of us who have never been held hostage, it almost seems fantastical... even intellectually offensive. Seriously, how could anyone ever develop endearing feelings for someone holding you at gunpoint? 



But when you think about it, this is the very nature of patriotism. 

Through an entire lifetime of bombastic propaganda, complete with songs and flags and parades, people develop an unquestioning commitment to the state. 

They'll say things like 'this is the freest country in the world' without a shred of objective evidence to support that conclusion... and overwhelming evidence to the contrary. 



But meanwhile, we're all held at gunpoint. 

Spy agencies monitor our phone calls and emails. Central bankers manipulate markets and destroy people who are responsible enough to save. 

Politicians confiscate people's livelihoods, regulate them to the hilt, authorize discretionary assassination of their own citizens, and actively work to destroy any vestiges of personal liberty. 



While everyone is allowed to roam around, work, and buy flat-screen TVs, we're all ultimately handcuffed by the state. 

Everything in our entire lives-- from the value of our savings to our homes and personal property, to even our personal freedom-- can all be confiscated in their sole discretion. 



I'd be willing to bet the chickens scratching around my yard right now think that they're free... and have no idea that they'll be this evening's dinner. 

This is a hostage situation, plain and simple. 



Yet they've skillfully managed to create bonds of affection. The hostages are standing tall, waving the flag, and defending the government's absurd, destructive actions... no matter how much they defy reality.

 

It's gotten to the point that the hostages have begun talking about government actions in the first person: 

'There's no way "we" would ever default...' 

'In this country "we're" innocent until proven guilty...' 

'Airport security makes "us" safer from terrorists...' 

'WE should invade Iran...'

 

Hostages have become so inured to the violence of our captors that few people even realize that it's happening. 

The fear and intimidation tactics have just become part of daily life. 



This is really hazardous thinking. Hostage situations are dangerous. When things start getting bad, the captors become desperate and start sacrificing their prisoners.

 

Candidly, our courses of action are limited. 

One can simply hope that the situation will improve, and that you won't be one of the hostages that gets slaughtered. 



Conversely, you can head towards the big, giant EXIT sign and leave the whole situation behind for greener pastures. 



Or, you can bear down and stick it out... but at least have a credible escape plan. Reduce your exposure to the captors. Don't have all of your eggs in one basket. 



It costs you nothing, for example, to move a portion of your savings abroad to a safe, stable bank in a jurisdiction that your home government does not control. 



It costs you nothing to pursue an 'ancestry' passport in the event that your parents or grandparents hailed from certain countries like Ireland or Italy. 



Yet in the event that the hostage crisis escalates, it's these sorts of steps that will end up paying enormous dividends for you... and pave the way to freedom."


Simon Black 
Senior Editor, SovereignMan.com

                FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER



More About "Onebornfree":

"Onebornfree" is a personal freedom consultant , a problem solver, and a musician. He can be reached at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom  .

Music Info: 

Onebornfree's [aka Fake-Eye D"] Music channel
 

Home studio recording example "Somewhere Over The Rainbow Blues"[2014 Remix]:

Other 2014 "Studio" Remixes:

"The Thrill Is Gone"

"Face In The Crowd Blues"

Live, solo example [own composition "Dreams [Anarchist's Blues]:


Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0o-C1_LZzk


Onebornfree Personal Freedom Blogsites: 

                                                                                         




Monday, November 18, 2013

Bill Bonner: "Repeat After Me: Economics Is NOT a Science"


[Financial Safety Services commentary: more accurately economics is a science, however, it is strictly a social science, not a physical science like chemistry or physics, as the Austrian economist Ludwig Von Mises clearly and succinctly explained in his classic "The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science". I personally feel that for savers, investors and speculators, the most important  ramification of this particular realization is that because economics was not, is not and can never be included in the "hard science" category along with physics and chemistry, it can in no way be a reliably predictive "science", as are those "hard sciences". Which means that the social science of economics can in no way accurately, consistently predict the economic future, as many economists, and many "investment  advisors" would have you believe it can. This great article by Bill Bonner goes a long way towards explaining, in simple, none-technical terms for you, the realities of this economic "science". Regards, Onebornfree & Financial Safety Services.]
                                                        FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER
                                                                    Bill Bonner

"On Monday and Tuesday, we visited our youngest son, Edward, a sophomore at the University of Vermont. His roommate joined us for dinner.

“Okay, let me explain it to you,” we said.

The roommate was wondering if he should switch his major to economics.

“Economics is a phony science. The more you study it, the more you think you know… and the less you really know about how an economy actually functions.

“I’ll explain why in just a few sentences.

“If you are a real scientist, you start with things you can know… and you can build on them.

“Water boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit at sea level, for example. The molecules heat up… then suddenly change from liquid to gas… and the pot boils. Right? Happens every time. You can count on it. And with this knowledge, you can build a steam engine.

“So, the simpleminded economist comes along and says, ‘Hey, an economy is like a pot of water! You heat it up… you get more activity… and GDP grows.’

“The analogy holds up superficially. You heat up the economy by putting some fire under it. If you’re a central banker, you lower interest rates. If you’re a politician, you increase the deficit.

“You know there’s a risk of overheating… or causing a bubble. But you think you understand how it works. You think you can predict and control the outcome because you’re a scientist who uses mathematical models, just like a real engineer.

Nobody Knows Anything

“But the problem is you don’t know anything. You don’t know if an economy really is like water. You don’t know where sea level is. For all you know, you’re high in the Alps. And you don’t know whether the fuel you’re using adds to the fire… or subtracts from it. QE, for example, may help heat up the economy. Or it may not. No one knows for sure.

“And get this. All those little molecules, you know – those individuals in the great economic pool? As soon as they catch on to what you’re doing, they will change their behavior. That’s the big difference between water and people. Water does the same thing no matter what you say or what you think. People don’t.

“We talk about the economy being like water. Well, try to imagine the contrary. Imagine water as though it was like a real economy. Imagine that the water knew you were going to bring it to a boil. Then instead of turning into vapor at 212 degrees, it might boil at 100 degrees or 170 degrees or 50 degrees in anticipation.

“And then, after you’ve brought it to a boil a few times, the water gets sick of being manipulated like this… and it boils off if it even suspects you’re thinking of warming it up.”

The kid started to fidget and look away. He was afraid he had run into some cranky old nut job who was going to keep talking all morning.

“Well, I guess I’ll stick with engineering.”

“Good idea.”

Regards, Bill 
Original article source
                     
                 FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER



More About "Onebornfree":

"Onebornfree" is a personal freedom consultant , a problem solver, and a musician. He can be reached at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom  .

Music Info: 

Onebornfree's [aka Fake-Eye D"] Music channel
 

Home studio recording example "Somewhere Over The Rainbow Blues":Youtube link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2oS9iI2zWU

Live solo example [own composition "Dreams [Anarchist's Blues]:

Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0o-C1_LZzk


Onebornfree Personal Freedom Blogsites: