Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Speculations- Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?

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Financial Safety Services Free All-Weather Speculation Suggestions:


Got Money You Could Afford to Lose?

 If possible, divide your savings to date into 2 "piles" :

[1] money you cannot afford to lose,

and...

[2] money you can afford to lose.

Got No Money You Could Afford To Lose?

If you have no money you could afford to lose, don't worry, just ignore all of the speculative suggestions given below.

Much more importantly, the money you cannot afford to lose needs to be safe, in a neutrally balanced,  long term, non-predictive savings plan similar to this one.

 Got Money You Could Afford To Lose?

Use only money you can realistically afford to lose for any of the following speculative ideas. These suggestions are for pure speculations [i.e. bets] -don't risk money you cannot afford to lose, _EVER_.

Got it?

Do you believe that a banking crisis is coming?
Suggestion: buy put options* on bank stocks [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that inflation is coming?
Suggestion: buy gold or call options* on gold, [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that a recession coming?
Suggestion: buy put options* on stocks or stock indices [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that the debt crisis is going out of control?
Suggestion: buy put options* on government bonds [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that a false alarm "crisis" is coming?
Suggestion: buy junk bonds - which should profit considerably when interest rates fall sharply [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that the economy will "muddle through" somehow?
Suggestion: buy stocks of companies you believe would most profit [ using only money you can afford to lose].

Do you believe that a deflation is coming?
Suggestion: Buy 30 year US treasury bonds [ using only money you can afford to lose].

*An option is a security that profits if a stock, stock index, or whatever, goes up [ call option] or down [put option]. As options have very short lives, typically no more than 9 months, they usually expire worthless. Therefor any speculation made with "play money" via options should only utilize a small part of the "play money" total, otherwise you could lose all of that "play money" within a few months.

Regards, onebornfreeatyahoo.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016

The Strange, Ongoing Contradictions of Bill Bonner

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                                                          ]
                                                                  Mr.Bill Bonner


Here's Bill Bonner [one of my two favorite financial writers- the other being Doug Casey, blatantly contradicting himself regarding the future of the economy.

First he predicts a depression : "Why Negative Rates Can’t Stop the Coming Depression"...

... then he says in the article itself: "The future is always unknown."


Hmmm, so, we are [1] in for a depression but [2] no one can predict the future ? [I agree with the last part, although someone out there may get lucky, even possibly Mr Bonner himself, I suppose].


To try to make my own position a little clearer:

Depressions/deflations , have happened in the past, so they _will_occur in the futre at some point, regardless of what some might say; no differently than inflation, recession, "stagflation", economic "good times", or whatever else, have occurred in the past and will/must therefor continue to naturally occur in the future - its just that none of those economic conditions can be reliably predicted ahead of time.

So Mr Bonner is right in one sense- there will be a depression at some point in the future, however [and ignoring the fact that I have instinctively "leaned" towards a deflationary scenario for a number of years in my conversations with clients and others], there can be no guarantee that that "the greater depression" will occur in yours, or my, lifetimes. Which is why you need a neutral [i.e. none-predictive] long term savings plan for the money you cannot afford to lose, in my humble opinion.

Regards, onebornfreeatyahoo