Friday, December 23, 2011

A Simple Plan to Keep Your Assets Safe From an Out-of-Control Government

More sound advice from Terry Coxon at Casey research:

A Simple Plan to Keep Your Assets Safe From an Out-of-Control Government

by Terry Coxon

"By keeping all your assets in the country where you live, you commit, ahead of time, to ratify whatever policy your home government might adopt, no matter how objectionable, unreasonable or pernicious that policy happens to be. If the next new mandate is "Register today to get a nail pounded into your head," you're already signed up.

Americans, by and large, run all their affairs within the confines of the US. The US economy is so large and so varied that it's easy to assume that everything you want to do with your wealth can be done without crossing any borders. And people in the US, like people anywhere, live with the habits and attitudes developed over generations. They're only human. In the case of Americans, those habits grew out of long experience with a government that was small and that generally practiced the rare virtue of following its own laws. In a happy exception to mankind's experience with rulers, there was little to fear from it.

Stay at home is still the norm for Americans, but it's a norm that is slowly fading. Every billion-dollar tick of the government debt clock, every expansion of the government's regulatory apparatus, every overreaching judicial decision made in the name of a compelling public need, every inversion of protection for citizens into license for the state and every intellectually tortured discovery of a new meaning in the Constitution's 4,400 old words leaves a few thousand more people wondering how prudent it is to consign all their eggs to a single national basket. Encounters with high-handed IRS agents and eager TSA gropers do nothing to ease that concern. And for those who listen thoughtfully, the messages from our designated leaders and their would-be replacements only hurry the dawning sense of unease.

Specific worries include exposure to predatory lawsuits, especially claims that could draw extra go-power by association with politically favored causes or legally favored groups; fear of where income tax rates might climb; the prospect of losing a family business in a regulatory battle or simply through estate tax; the fragility of financial institutions that have operated for forty years with the assurance that the Federal Reserve would rescue them from any folly; the possibility that a government desperate to protect the dollar from collapse might impose foreign exchange controls or capital controls; the memory and precedent of the forced gold sales of 1933; and the thought that a government floundering in deficits might start pilfering from IRAs and other pension plans.

But beyond those particular worries and perhaps more important than any of them is the sense that from here on, anything goes. The politicians will do whatever they find convenient, because there is no longer anything to stop them – not an electorate that is jealous of its freedoms and certainly not the Constitution, which is now just a playhouse for judicial imagineering. No one can know what's coming next from the government and the financial system it has fostered, but for many of us there is an awful suspicion that we are not going to like it.

Most Americans still have yet to stick a single financial toe across the border, but more and more are considering it. Many, perhaps millions of toes are now twitching at the thought. Their owners want to end their absolute dependence on what happens in the US. They want to prepare for whatever is coming down the road, even though they don't know what it will be. They want to be as ready as possible, even though their worries can only guess at what's ahead.

Because internationalizing your financial life means dealing with the unfamiliar, the project can seem more complex than it really is, so it's best to start with the simplest measures, even if by themselves they don't give you all the safety you're looking for. Even from a simple beginning, what you learn with each step will make the next step easier to plan. Start with the first rung on the ladder of internationalization. Then climb, at your own speed, to reach the right level of protection.

Rung 1: Coins in Your Pocket

Gold coins that you've stored personally give you something whose value doesn't depend on the health of the US economy, doesn't depend on any financial institution in the US and doesn't depend on any US government policy. Gold coins are portable and hold their value no matter where in the world you might take them. They're internationalization in a wafer. Safety cookies.

It's best to buy the coins for cash, for maximum privacy. And there is a good reason to favor one-tenth-ounce gold Eagles. Gold coins mean readiness for troubled times; if you ever need to dispose of the gold in an informal market, it will be easier to do so with small-denomination coins that are widely recognizable and whose value matches the scale on which large numbers of people normally trade.

The premium on one-tenth-ounce coins (the price compared with the value of the gold content) is higher than on the larger coins – usually about 15% for the small coins vs. 5% for one-ounce Eagles. But the premium isn't a dead cost, like a commission or bid-ask spread. The premium is a second investment; it's what you pay for the packaging, and you can expect to recover it when you sell or trade. And in the circumstances when you would have the strongest reasons for thanking yourself for having bought some gold, the premium you paid will look like a bargain.

Rung 2: A Foreign Bank Account

On its own initiative, the IRS can freeze any bank account in the US without warning. The action might arise from mistaken identity, from an erroneous filing by some other taxpayer, from your failure to respond to an IRS notice in time or even from a postal error. And that's what can happen without malice. Other government agencies have similar powers to act on their own, without giving you an opportunity to object in court. And any one of them might act against you for any of their specialized reasons – perhaps because someone resents your inattention to the needs of the migratory birds that visit your property or perhaps because someone thinks it would be fun to point to you as a terrorist, drug smuggler, arms dealer or child-porn merchant.

In principle, there are legal avenues for undoing a freeze or a seizure. But you'd need a lawyer, and being suddenly penniless could get in the way of hiring one.

A foreign bank account protects you from being trapped in such a nightmare. The US government can get to your foreign bank account eventually, because it can get to you. But a lightning seizure is very unlikely, because it would require a foreign government to override its own legal processes, which it generally wouldn't be willing to do except in a grave emergency. So if your liquid assets at home were frozen, you would have cash outside the US to fund the legal cost of untangling the problem.

A foreign bank account is also a way to step back from the uncertainties of the US dollar, since the account could be denominated in another currency.

The US government has seen to it that Americans are no longer welcome customers at foreign banks. So forget about opening a Swiss bank account in your own name. However, if you apply in person (not by mail), you still can open a bank account in Canada. Be prepared to show your passport and to give the bank an original utility bill that confirms your place of residence.

Rung 3: Gold Abroad

The forced gold sales of 1933 were the work of an executive order signed by President Roosevelt. The purported legal basis for the order was the Trading With The Enemy Act, a legislative artifact of World War I. I have yet to find an explanation of how the authority for an order requiring Americans to sell their gold to the government at the government's official price of $20 per ounce could be found in the Trading With The Enemy Act, but the fact that the enemy in question had gone out of business 15 years earlier didn't seem to interfere with the legal logic.

The forced sale was a prelude to an increase in the official gold price to $35. The government's reason for wanting that price rise was to gain leeway for a substantial, though limited, inflation of the dollar while keeping the dollar on the international gold standard. The forced sale was a way for the government, which operated in a political environment that still disfavored deficit spending, to capture the profit from the price rise. That profit would be a kitty for more spending without more borrowing.

Today there is no gold standard for the government to stay on. And deficit spending isn't something politicians especially want to avoid; they've promoted it as a civic duty, to stimulate the economy. So the depression-era motives for a gold grab don't seem to apply. Yet you can't listen to a conversation between two gold investors without hearing the seizure topic coming up.

Are they just scaring each other? I don't believe so. There are two potential motives for the government to again treat gold differently from everything else.

If the dollar's slide in foreign exchange markets threatens to turn into a panic, the government might want to use gold sales to foreigners to mop up foreign-held dollars – in which case it might see a need to mop up the gold owned by its own citizens. That's bad enough, but a second motive is a good bit nastier. At a visceral level, people who have centered their lives on government just don't like gold. It's an affront to the government's authority to command and control and an insult to government's supposed aptitude for solving economic problems. So disrespectful. From their point of view, every ounce purchased by an American is another tomato hurled at the political class. And the purchasers still constitute a tiny minority of the voting population. What could be more satisfying and convenient for the politicians than to kick sand in the face of gold investors for being such lousy citizens?

A new attack on gold ownership probably wouldn't be a point-for-point reenactment of 1933. There are many weapons for mugging gold investors. It could be a prohibition on gold ownership coupled with a prohibition on sales of gold to foreigners. The only one left to buy would be the government, and being the only bidder, it would be a very low bidder. It could be a commandeering of privately owned gold, with token compensation like the $15 per day paid for jury duty. It could be a super tax, say 90%, on gold profits, which would get the job done slowly... or quickly if it were accompanied by a mark-to-market rule. Or it could be something none of us has thought of yet.

Not only can't we know the shape of a future gold grab, we can't know whether or how the rules would touch foreign-held gold. Owners of gold stored outside the US would be a minority of a minority. Their gold wouldn't be the low-hanging fruit – it would be higher up in the tree and more trouble to get to. That's why, in a casino sense, gold overseas is a different bet and a better bet than gold at home.

Maybe it will turn out that storing gold overseas won't matter at all, in which case a little effort will have been wasted. And maybe it will turn out to matter a great deal.

Rung 4: A Swiss Annuity

A conventional annuity contract is a device for accumulating investment returns and eventually converting the value into a lifetime income. The investment return on an annuity from a US insurance company is tax deferred until it is paid out to you. If you buy an annuity from a foreign company, tax deferral is available only if the annuity's value is tied to the performance of a pool of investments (a variable annuity).

Swiss annuities have long held a special place in personal financial planning. Such an annuity is denominated in Swiss francs, i.e., it's francs, not dollars, that are owed to you. The Swiss insurance industry has a perfect record; policyholders have never been hurt by a default. And a Swiss annuity comes with an element of protection from would-be lawsuit creditors.

The Swiss franc is, like every other modern-day currency, just a piece of paper. It's not redeemable for anything, not even a piece of chocolate. But the Swiss National Bank has a remarkable record of restraint in issuing new francs, which means that the franc's prospects for holding its value have long been rated better than for any other currency.

I believe that is still the case, despite the Swiss National Bank's current policy of suppressing any further increase in the price of the franc. In September, in order to save export industries from being crushed by the franc's rapid appreciation against other currencies, the Swiss National Bank announced that it would purchase euros without limit to enforce a minimum exchange rate of 1.2 francs per euro – which implies printing enough francs to pay for those euros. By itself, it is an inflationary move, but it's not a suicide pact with the European Central Bank (the issuing authority for euros). If the ECB turns to a policy of rapid inflation, I would expect the Swiss National Bank at some point to decouple the franc from the euro and let the franc's price rise. So owning some Swiss francs, whether directly or through an annuity, is still a good step toward internationalizing your financial life.

Under Swiss law, an annuity is protected from the owner's creditors if the beneficiaries consist of family members or if the owner has made a beneficiary designation that is irrevocable. For an owner in the US, that protection is not an impenetrable barrier to the winner of a lawsuit, but it is a barrier, and it makes the annuity a less-than-ideal prize for an attacker.

Earnings that are accumulating in a Swiss annuity are not eligible for tax deferral for a US taxpayer. The advantages are currency protection, the reliability of Swiss insurance companies and a measure of asset protection.

Rung 5: Foreign Real Estate

Owning real estate in another country gives you a suite of protections that distinguishes it from other steps toward internationalization.

First, the property's value will depend on economic conditions in the country you've chosen, not on what happens in the US. If the economy of the foreign country grows and prospers, there is likely to be a spillover effect on the market value of your house, apartment, farm or patch of land – regardless of what is going on in the US.

Second, a foreign real estate investment would be hard to digest for any future capital controls imposed by the US. New rules could compel you to repatriate the cash you have in a foreign bank; rules forcing you to liquidate your foreign real estate and bring the money home would be another matter. Selling real estate isn't quick or easy. How does the government compel an unwilling citizen to do what an eager seller often finds difficult to accomplish?

Third, as a potential prize for a lawsuit attacker, foreign real estate is a stinker. Even if he wins a judgment against you, foreclosing on your foreign property would be difficult to impossible, since it would require the cooperation of the courts in the foreign country, about whose rules and procedures the attacker's attorney probably knows nothing. But he does know that even if he persuades a court in the US to order you to sell the property, the inherent illiquidity of real estate would give you plenty of opportunities for foot-dragging.

Where to buy? The whole world is open to you... which can be a problem. So many possibilities and no obvious place to start. One approach is to think about where you've been that you'd like to visit again or about some place you've long wanted to see. Plan to spend a few weeks there. Minimize your hotel hours, to maximize your exposure to the rest of the locale. Try to meet Americans, perhaps expatriates, who know their way around the place and who can point you toward a real estate broker who won't try to treat you as an out-of-town sucker.

Buying foreign real estate isn't for everyone. It requires a big investment in time and effort, but it could repay you with an asset that is low on the list of things anyone might try to take from you.

Rung 6: A Foreign LLC for Investments

A limited liability company organized under the laws of a foreign country is easy to set up and not too expensive. To bring the company into existence, you (or a service you hire) would file a simple form with a government office in the country you've chosen and pay a small fee. Then you as the LLC's Manager and you as the LLC's owner would enter into an agreement (the "operating agreement") that would be the company's governing instrument.

As the LLC's Manager, you would open a non-US bank account or brokerage account in the name of the LLC and transfer your personal cash and investments to that account. Again as Manager, you would make all the investment decisions.

For a US person, a foreign LLC can be a powerful door-opener. It is welcome at many banks and brokerage firms where you personally would be turned away. This enables you to keep a wider range of assets outside the US, which puts more wealth beyond the reach of any arbitrary bureaucratic action. It also gives you investment choices that aren't available at home.

Access to foreign investments and overseas financial services is reason enough to consider using a foreign limited liability company. But it can do much more for you, although at the cost of some complexity.

Notice the fundamental difference between a foreign LLC and what is going on at the first four rungs of the ladder of internationalization. With the LLC, you no longer personally own the assets you are trying to protect; the company owns them. This makes the LLC a powerful device for reducing your family's expose to gift and estate taxes. And with the right provisions in the operating agreement, it can provide strong protection against loss to any malicious lawsuit.

If you are the sole owner of a foreign LLC intended for holding investments, you can and almost certainly should file an election for the LLC to be treated as a disregarded entity (indistinguishable from you for income tax purposes). If your spouse or anyone else is going to share in ownership of the LLC, the company can and should elect to be treated as a partnership for income tax purposes.

Rung 7: A Foreign LLC for Business

A business that operates outside the US does even more than a portfolio of foreign investments to give you the benefits of internationalization.

By its nature, a foreign business lives in a different environment than a business in the US. Economic troubles at home might not touch it. If it's a business that depends on your personal efforts, it's even less attractive as a lawsuit prize than foreign real estate. Being foreign, it would be outside the range of capital controls in the US. And many of the financial institutions that might turn away an investment-owning LLC because it is owned by an American will welcome an LLC that makes or sells goods or services.

If you already have a business in the US that has foreign customers or foreign suppliers, you may be able to relocate the business's non-US activities to a foreign LLC. Internet-based businesses are especially amenable to internationalization.

Locating your business in a low-tax or no-tax jurisdiction, if it is practical to do so, can reduce your overall tax burden. In many cases, a foreign LLC that operates a business should elect to be treated as a foreign corporation for US income tax purposes. That can allow the business to reinvest its earnings while it pays little in current taxes and you personally pay nothing.

Rung 8: An International Trust That You Establish

Establishing a trust outside the US is the strongest internationalization step you can take for yourself and your family. Doing so costs more than any other measure, but the costs needn't be prohibitive if your goal is to move $500,000 or more into the safest structure possible. What you achieve is a very high level of protection from aggressive lawsuits, from potential capital controls and from the possibility of a gold seizure. The trust also puts your wealth in a far better environment for income tax planning and for estate planning.

To serve the purposes of protection and tax savings, an international trust is irrevocable (you can't simply call the institution you've chosen as trustee and say you've changed your mind) and discretionary (meaning that the trustee has a responsibility to decide when to send a check to you or to any of the other beneficiaries you've included). Putting assets under the control of a trust company under such an arrangement is a big step. You're not going to do it unless you've done the homework needed to understand how and why you can count on the trustee to handle the assets in the way you intend.

Getting the protection and tax savings of an international trust doesn't require you to give up management control of the assets. The trust can be limited to owning just one thing – an LLC that you manage. The LLC owns all the investments, under your supervision as LLC Manager.

If you establish an international trust, it will be tied to you for income tax purposes. But at the end of your lifetime, it will completely disconnect from the US tax system. At that point, for the benefit of your survivors, it becomes...

Rung 9: An International Trust Someone Else Established

Being a beneficiary of an international trust established by someone other than a living US person is as good as it gets. It's not linked to you by any transfers you've made to it, and you don't have a determinable percentage interest in it (since it's a discretionary trust). So until you actually receive a distribution, there is nothing for you to report, nothing for you to pay tax on and nothing a potential lawsuit creditor can hope to take from you. And, having no living connection to the US, the trust is as far beyond the orbit of any conceivable US gold seizure or currency controls as the former planet Pluto.

One Toe over the Line

It's a long way from walking into the local coin shop and buying a few one-tenth-ounce gold Eagles to setting up a trust in a foreign country. But the distance isn't nearly as great as you might imagine, and it will get shorter both in fact and in apprehension with each step you take.

As you move up the ladder, you'll learn about the reporting requirements for US taxpayers. Rung 1 (gold coins in your pocket) entails no reporting, nor does Rung 8 until you actually receive a distribution. Rung 5 (foreign real estate) also is free of reporting requirements, at least for now. But under rules in effect now or soon to come, everything else covered in this article entails filing a form with the US government. The most reliable way to make sure that you stay within the rules, so that internationalization adds to your safety and not to your problems, is to let your accountant know what you are doing. Keep him informed, so that he can see to it that all the reporting requirements are satisfied.

Every day you delay beginning your internationalization strategy is another day your bank accounts are hemorrhaging. Learn how to protect yourself.

December 23, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Casey Research

Terry Coxon is contributing editor of Casey Research. He is president of Passport Financial, Inc., and for over 30 years has advised clients on legal ways to internationalize their assets to optimize tax, wealth protection and estate planning goals.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

"The Folly of Forecasting" and "The Myth of The Model"

"The Folly of Forecasting" and "The Myth of The Model"

It gets a little tiresome for me to, post after post, keep making the "same old same old" point about saving and investing and the almost complete unpredictability of future market events, and so it is nice for me to have recently come across two articles that say almost the exact same thing as I invariably end up saying both here and, inevitably, to most of my clients as well, until they are all sick of it/me! Maybe, just maybe, these two authors say it a little more convincingly than I have so far managed to?:

"...........the mathematical games economists play are just so much flapdoodle being dished out to an eager audience of those craving to know the future. The future is uncertain, except for knowing that government interventions, based on some economist's modeling, will make matters worse."

Complete article here


Article number two: "The Myth of The Model" by Max Borders .

Enjoy,regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Gold at US$2000 Within 6-8 Weeks? Commentary



Unfortunately, the truth is that gold _may_ go that high in that time frame, or it might not, there is simply no way for anyone, including Mr Waters, to know for sure.

Although gold is in historically uncharted waters, it seems reasonable to assume that $2,000 per Oz. is a significant support/resistance level .

Meaning that if and when it breaks that barrier , then it might hold and confirm that new valuation over time, or it might quickly fall back below $2000 for a year or so, or it might even quickly move up to the next logical support/resistance level of $2500 per oz.

Again, there is simply no way to know for sure- outside of pure luck/coincidence, the economic financial future cannot be reliably/accurately predicted by anyone with any worthwhile consistency.

However if an individual places his/her bets on a higher price for gold :

1] using money they can afford to lose, [and allocates a specific, not to be exceeded, amount of that money],

2] sets realistic, automated, limited, buy orders with their broker;

3] employs pre-determined, automatic, realistic, trailing stop-losses that can be raised should the market price of their speculation increase, but that are never lowered should the speculations price drop below the stop loss level [instead the speculator is automatically "stopped out"],

4] has a general awareness of probable support/resistance levels, risk/reward ratios etc.etc.,

then they will at least have protected themselves from losing their shirts[ i.e money they cannot afford to lose- a fixed percentage of which is already pre-allocated to gold bullion, regardless of its current price], should their bets on the seeming "inevitability" of a higher gold price not pan out as hoped for.

More On Speculations in Gold Bullion

As a pure speculation, for a number of to remain publicly undisclosed reasons [i.e.disclosed to clients only],I would definitely not be buying gold at around the $1800 per oz. price, as Mr Waters appears to be suggesting you do.


None clients may purchase my "Complete Guide to Safe Speculations",[currently in the process of re-editing] for $250, to find out exactly why, as a speculation, even a limited gold bullion "buy-in" at around $1800 per oz. that allocates only a small portion of money you can afford to lose, is still probably a bad idea as a speculation.

Gold Bullion as Part of A Long Term Savings Plan [not a speculation]

On the other hand, and regardless of current price per oz.,for the person who has no gold bullion at this time for their long term savings plan, buying a specific amount of gold at this time in order to commit a specific percentage of their long-term savings to gold as a constant part of that savings plan that never changes percentage-wise,no matter what happens to the daily price, is a very good idea. Regards, onebornfree.

Update [11/18/11] The both famous and highly esteemed Mr Richard Russell has also recently written on what he sees as Golds inevitably glowing future prospects, and advises his subscribers to accumulate even more gold, regardless. Although I am a great admirer of Mr Russell, I have to say that ultimately, he knows no more, or less about the future than you, me, or anyone else. Therefor I would advise extreme caution in acting on his advice- I feel that everything I said above in the main part of this post applies equally to Mr Russell's advice.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Friday, November 4, 2011

Money Market Funds, An Investment Whose Time Has Passed? [commentary]

[edited 11/07/11] Onebornfree's commentary: The original article title, by the highly esteemed [by myself, at least] Mr Terry Coxon, had no question mark in it.[It was added by me, as a subtle part of my own commentary.]

Terry gives a short very interesting history [well worth reading]of money market funds, and how they came about as a way to circumvent government regulation and still make a profit for the funds themselves and for the individuals who chose to put money into them.

He then speculates that because these funds generally did well during the generally inflationary period that somewhat fortuitously followed their creation [1970- 82], and because the [post 2008] economic environment is entirely different from what had mostly prevailed up until the "collapse", that these types of fund might no longer be useful for the average saver/investor.

He speculates for a number of related reasons:

"Today there is little good reason to use a money market fund for substantial amounts of cash.

1. There is no material yield advantage because there is no material yield on cash anywhere – unless you are willing to take risks that mock the idea of cash. The highest yield on a money market fund I've seen since the Federal Reserve hammered rates into the floor at the end of 2008 was an offshore operation called Bank of Ireland USD Liquidity Fund, with a yield of 0.54%. How the fund earned that much (after expenses) in a world where 30-day jumbo CDs return 0.20% and one-month T-bills yield 0.04%, I don't know. But if the fund's risk disclosure was adequate, it would have included language that amounted to "Baby needs shoes!"

2. With most money market funds, there is a material safety disadvantage vs. FDIC-insured CDs since, of course, commercial paper and jumbo CDs carry a risk of default.

3. With a T-bill-only fund, the best you can say in favor of the fund vs. FDIC-insured CDs is that it's a tossup. Both are very secure."


So what do I think?

Well basically, what I think about Mr Coxon's conclusion [i.e. that Money Market Funds ARE An Investment Whose Time Has Passed] , is represented by my addition of a question mark to his title. In other words, despite the fact that I agree with just about everything in the article, I disagree with his level of certainty.He appears to be sure, I am not.

The economic future [inflation, deflation, or whatever] as always, remains unknown, so while it is not prudent to keep all of one's life savings in any money market fund [regardless of type], no more than it is prudent to keep them all in any one investment class such as: gold and other precious metals, or in real estate, or in stocks, or in US Treasury or corporate bonds, art, or even in cash under the mattress, money market funds of a particular type [e.g. those investing purely in U.s. T-Bills], might, to a degree, still serve some particular advantage for the individual saver [for example, as a convenient,liquid way to hold cash and still earn a small return in a deflationary environment. ]

Other types of money market funds [e.g. those investing in jumbo bank CD's mentioned in Mr Coxon's article] , might still also be useful, if and when inflation returns.

So maybe, don't write them off completely just yet, Mr. Coxon?. Regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER : I have no financial interest in any money market fund, of any description, anywhere in the world.


DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .

Friday, October 28, 2011

The Daily Bell "Stocks Are Up- But Why?" [Commentary]

[Updated: 11/01/11] Yesterday's Daily Bell website asked the question "Stocks Are Up- But Why?" in reference to the recent gains in broad US stock indices:

"Given that the European mess continues, that most banks in Europe (and likely in the US) are under-water, that the US is technically in debt for some US$200 TRILLION if all socio-political promises are kept, that Europe is even worse off in terms of debt and insolvency, that China is dealing with vicious price inflation (along with India and Brazil), that Japan just hiked rates, etc., etc. ... given all these factors, how can markets be going UP?

The US stock markets set the tone for markets worldwide and US markets have been climbing steadily even as the world's economy seems ever closer to collapse. How can this be? ..."


The article mentions/hints at price manipulations, the Federal Reserve system etc. as possibly being the cause.

Here is my own [as always] somewhat warped view:

Why has the US stock market been going up?

Well, the truth is that nobody really knows for certain.

Another truth is that many will earnestly tell you, with absolute certainty, and total conviction, that they [and only they] know exactly why it has been going up.

These types of people people are either naively delusional , or just plain dishonest.

I could make an educated [or uneducated- depending on your point of view] guess as to why the US stock market has made gains recently, but ultimately, it's still only a guess, because, at any point in time my available market knowledge, no differently from any other individuals, remains finite and incomplete, making my guess no more or less of one than anyone else's, or than any one "expert's" "absolute certainty".

My own"educated" or "uneducated" guess [take your pick], would be that with both the ongoing European debt crisis, and the rapidly snowballing Chinese crisis, plus the generally assumed knowledge that in the end, the US is most likely to pull out of its recession sooner than the rest of the pack, that, rightly or wrongly, the US economy is still generally perceived worldwide as being a safer bet than most of the rest of the world, at least for the time being, and that with seemingly limited options, many investors worldwide are buying US stocks.

But like I said, that is all just a guess. In reality, and just like everyone else, I really don't have a clue.

Your Best Protection-A Neutral,"Don't Know",Long Term Saving's Plan

As always, a neutral "don't know" long-term savings plan, in other words, a fully diversified savings plan that is not committed to any one particular "certain" economic future and is therefor not dependent on any one future economic outcome [e.g. inflation, deflation, tight money, stock market prosperity etc.], is the best protection for all of your precious, "cannot afford to lose" long term savings.

Regards, onebornfree

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All of the more valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know", customized basis, depending on specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts are not made on any regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

As previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is:

[1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, October 24, 2011

Is [Austrian] Economics a Real Science?

"The economics of the Austrian School has a very firm scientific methodology as a foundation. "

I hate to nit-pick such an otherwise excellent article, but this is , unfortunately, an extremely misleading statement as read.

There is nothing in the Austrian methodology [nor in any other school of economics for that matter], that can bear any resemblance to the methodology of the physical sciences [i.e physics chemistry etc.], which use the only truly scientific methodologies that I am aware of.

Economics is a social science, not a physical science like, for example, physics or chemistry.

All Austrian economic insights are supposed to be derived from the consistent application, to preceding economic events, of logic [i.e. ratiocination and deductive reasoning], in retrospect, after the fact; and that post-event reasoning always starts from the  assumption that all individuals are both unique, and have unique [and constantly changing/evolving] value systems.

Given the fact that all individuals are unique, what Von Mises himself called " methodological individualism" [ and the _true_ bedrock of all Austrian theory, and the starting assumption from which every other Austrian theory always proceeds], in no way can Austrian Economic theory therefor be reliably used to predict future economic events, such as the collapse of the $ US or Euro, or the collapse of a nation/state,or any other economic event, in any manner comparable to what can be quite reliably and accurately predicted in the physical sciences, where molecules etc. can be repeatedly experimented on in completely controlled laboratory environments, in order to reach conclusions about the way those molecules will behave in the future when subjected to the exact same conditions.

What About the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, Isn't That Predictive?

Although , as I would be the first to admit, there definitely is a business cycle, as the Austrians have repeatedly demonstrated, given the realities of human action, unlike the physical sciences, there is simply no way to know in advance at what stage of the business cycle we ever really are, or for how long a boom, a recession or a depression might conceivably last. There are simply too many known and unknown human action variables that can never be reliably measured [even if known], let alone accurately predicted.

At best, using Austrian theory at any point in a recession, or in a boom period, we can make educated guesses about what caused the present state, what might end it, and what might be next, but since all knowledge is finite, it is impossible to know with absolute certainty what is just over the horizon. It could be a depression, it could be a recovery, it could be something else- there is no way to know in advance using any supposedly "scientific",  "predictive" properties of economic theory.

Summary: Austrian Business Cycle Theory can be very useful in trying to determine, after the fact, what might have caused an economic climate/event/scenario, but it has, no differently from any other school of economics , absolutely no use as a predictive tool that can accurately forecast future economic events, climates or scenarios.

As Always,The Economic Future Remains Unknown, and Unknowable

The US nation state might collapse next week, or it could stagger on for another 50-100 years , nobody knows for sure - the exact same thing can be said about its fiat currency [or that of any other nation]; the $US could fold soon, or it might recover and hang around for a lot longer - no one can be certain, despite what many claim _must_ happen, based on their understanding of Austrian theory,[ which I would suggest, is a simple misunderstanding].

Your [Free!] Financial Safety Services Summary:

SAVERS BEWARE! Do not believe any "investment professional" who attempts to "blind you with science" with his/her assumptions and predictions about the future performance of any investment he/she sells and whose results have been derived from graphics [charts etc.], or who claims that economics , whether it be Classical, Keynesian, Austrian, or something else entirely, is based on scientific principle , and that therefor, his/her predictions about the future are reliable .

Instead , start to construct a long term savings plan for your savings that is mostly immune to the unpredictable ups and downs of booms, recessions, depressions etc.

Regards, onebornfree.

**********************************************

FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .

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More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]
Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as I previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom


Regards, onebornfree 

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Elliot Wave and Kondratieff Wave Theories and The Great, Ongoing Inflation/Deflation Debate

Just a few thoughts.

The fortunate [or unfortunate, depending on how you look at it], truth is that nobody can reliably, consistently predict future economic scenarios, [inflation, hyper-inflation, recession, deflation etc.]

So although I personally lean towards a possible real deflation and deflationary depression merely on instinct/gut feeling [deflation defined as a situation where the worldwide demand to hold and not spend US $'s and US treasury debt consistently outstrips the available supply of US $'s], I know that those predicting inflation , or even the imminent return of "good times" , have just as much chance of being right, and that my own instincts could be way, way off track.

Of course, just like myself, they have as much chance of being wrong as well :-) .

One thing's for sure- people who rely on charts that purport to show what happened before - and therefor what happens next [eg Elliot Wave theorists, Kondratieff Wave theorists , etc. etc., ] are no better at predicting the economic future than "economists", "investment advisors" , "portfolio managers" or your average tea- leaf reader or astrologist.

In light of the fundamental principles of human action, the belief that one can successfully and consistently predict an economic future based on "expert" interpretation of arbitrary figures, points and lines drawn on a chart or graph that supposedly represent the economic past is, to put it mildly, deeply flawed.*

In my opinion, savings and investment wisdom starts from the assumption that no-one can reliably predict future economic events, and builds from that assumption.
, Regards, onebornfree.

* If you would like to know more about these principles, and exactly why they make any wave theory more or less redundant, let me know . [onebornfree at yahoo dot com]

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, September 5, 2011

Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold-Commentary

[updated 09/06/11] Commentary : I have been a fan of Doug Casey since the appearance of one of his earliest books "Crisis Investing" somewhere around 1982[?] .

In fact that 1 book was the one that opened the door for me into the world of Ayn Rand, Austrian economic theory, anarchism,libertarianism etc. etc. Much of the most useful information for me at the time was to be found in the sources/bibliography at the back of the book; eager for more information, I diligently followed up and read most of the books referenced, including even his science fiction recommendations!

I find myself agreeing with nearly everything Mr Casey says in this 09/04/11 interview with Anthony Wile at the Daily Bell, except for one crucial area: that is: his firm prediction/prophesy for what is coming "down the pipes" in the next 5 years for the US economy.

For around 13 years after reading the aforementioned "Crisis Investing" [probably still the biggest selling book on investing published in the US, but I'm not sure], I preached the Casey gospel, basically, that I knew exactly what was coming next for the US economy [i.e.disaster!].

Although I had previously started to suspect that, given my own understandings of human action, that individuals could not reliably, consistently predict future economic events [as early as 1986], it was not until around 1995 that I finally [painfully!] "woke up" and admitted to myself that neither myself, Doug Casey, nor anyone else [i.e. other "investment advisors", economists, bankers, businessmen, tea-leaf readers,etc.] could reliably, consistently predict future economic events.

And although I still had a strong feeling, given the realities of governments, central banks and the business cycle etc., that some type of financial catastrophe [i.e. deflation, or hyper-inflation] was more or less inevitable at some point in the future, I admitted to myself that the reality was that I had absolutely no idea as to when, whenever whatever was going to happen, would in fact happen!

At that point I gave up trying to predict the economic future for friends/clients, but instead concentrated on showing them simple ways to construct a simple, relatively safe, long-term savings plan that in no way depended on predicting future events.

Fact: Mr Casey Knows He Cannot Reliably,Consistently Predict future Economic Events!

Yes, that's right! Truth be told, Mr Casey is all too aware of his own lack of ability to predict future economic events, I know this for a fact. Why he would insist on attempting to do so in this interview , and to give readers the distinct impression that he can in fact so do, is a question I am not going to attempt to answer- you must draw your own conclusions.

But that might just be "sour grapes" on my part. Apart from that one area of disagreement, Mr Casey makes some excellent points.

P.S. It is worth noting that most of the comments on the interview, where the readers disagree with him, it is usually over his predictions- the readers are just as convinced as to their own ability to reliably predict future economic events as Mr Casey appears to be! Regards, onebornfree.

Article "Doug Casey on the Continuance of the Greater Depression and the Brighter Prospects for Gold"

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

Nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large. Internet posts are therfor not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I likewise have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make at this site they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Sunday, August 28, 2011

The Many Collapses of Keynesianism-Commentary

"It should be obvious to everyone but the most dedicated adherent of Keynesianism that the stimulus did not accomplish its end. The combination of outright spending by Congress, the desperate schemes to reflate the housing market, the attempt to transfuse bleeding firms with other people’s money, and the creation of trillions in artificial money, has not done a thing to lift the US economy........... " Full article here


Onebornfree's brief commentary [updated 09/05/11]:

False Assumption?

The false assumption of Mr Rockwell's piece is that the stimulus "should" have worked by now, and because it has not, this somehow disproves "the Keynesian paradigm".

But it ain't necessarily so![Not that I am , in any way,shape , or form, a fan of Keynes' economic theories].

It might be just too early for the false stimuli to have worked yet. Actions by the Fed typically take an average of 3 to 5 years to have any effect- sometimes longer, sometimes shorter, it all depends.

Nobody can know for sure whether the fake credit/money created out of thin air by the Fed is going to work this time around or not- it is possible that the Feds actions have already been absorbed/offset by the market at large- it is also just as possible that enough time has not yet passed for those actions to have had any real effect in the market at large [hence the continued slowdown in economic activity].

Although it is reasonable and logical to conclude that the reason that the various QE's have not worked to date is because the Fed is [this time around] paying banks interest on access reserves, [therefor reducing their willingness to loan money to new business start-ups etc.], such reasoning and logic is _not_ infallible, [even though I lean toward the same conclusion]; there are simply to many unknown factors involved to know for sure, which is exactly why you need to keep the money you cannot afford to lose [i.e long term life savings] in a savings plan that does not attempt to predict the economic future.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .



***********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

Nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large. Internet posts are therfor not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I likewise have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make at this site they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom