Saturday, November 2, 2019

Financial Safety Services Special Reports-11th. Nov. 2019

 "No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment "expert" advisor, no banker, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer algorithm, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance"- Onebornfree.

                              
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Whither The Economy?  Some Recent "Expert" Market Predictions:

Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index 5 Year performance-[log scale]
[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"Expert" Prediction [1]-An Inflationary Depression Is Definitely Coming Soon!:

Gold bullion/$US price per Troy ounce, 10 years [log scale]

[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said the service sector is about to follow manufacturing into recession. He also talked about the recent employment numbers and explained how the Fed is acting like a Soviet Politburo.":An Inflationary Depression



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aji7x4F4nOI

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"Expert" Prediction[2]: An October Stock Market Crash Is Definitely Coming!:

“It’s all hype…” “It’s clickbait…” “It’s fearmongering…”. That’s just some of what folks are saying about my prediction that the stock market will crash this month.

I can’t blame them for being skeptical. After all, the financial industry is full of folks who make scary predictions just to capture headlines and get their “15 minutes of fame.” But what if I’m not one of those people?....................And what if I’m noticing that many conditions in the stock market today are eerily similar to conditions that have preceded bear markets before?.....":


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Financial Safety Services Commentary:

Attention dear reader! This"just"in: 

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer program, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance]. 

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

And yet,despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently predicted by anyone, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of that unknowable economic future!

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                 About Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services 
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"If it were possible to calculate the future structure of the market, the future would not be uncertain. There would be neither entrepreneurial loss nor profit. What people expect from the economists is beyond the power of any mortal man."  Ludwig Von Mises

More Von Mises quotes here



More About Financial Safety Services

About Financial Safety Services:

Financial Safety Services' 
Economic Philosophy Studies:

Financial Safety Services [onebornfree] has independently studied economic theory and philosophy, and  investment/speculation theory and philosophy, for 30 + years.

Economic theories/authors studied : 


Financial Safety Services - 
Investment + Speculation Philosophy :

 Authors/advisors studied [in most cases I subscribed to their newsletters, as well as reading their books, if published in the US] :

Doug Casey, Harry Schultz, Richard Russell, John Pugsley, Howard Ruff, Harry Browne, Terry Coxon, Bill Bonner, and others.

Financial Safety Services Consultation Information email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com
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Von Mises Quotes [on the inevitable unpredictability of future economic events]

"Thus there is no such thing as an automatic adjustment of the quantity of fiduciary media in circulation to fluctuations in the demand for money without an effect on the objective exchange value of money. Consequently all those arguments are ill founded which seek to deny practical significance to the quantity theory by reference to the alleged elasticity of the circulation of money. The increase and decrease of the stock of fiduciary media in a free banking system have no greater natural connection, direct or indirect, with the rise and fall of the demand for money in the broader sense, than the increase and decrease of the stock of money have with the rise and fall of the demand for money in the narrower sense. Such a connection exists only insofar as the credit banks deliberately try to bring it about. Apart from this, the only connection that can be established between the two sets of variations, which are in themselves independent of each other, is like that of the policy which, say, in a period of increasing demand for money in the broader sense aims at an increase of fiduciary media in order to counteract the rise in the objective exchange value of money which might otherwise be expected. Since it is impossible to measure fluctuations in the objective exchange value of money, even only approximately, we are not able to judge whether the increase of fiduciary media that has occurred during the last century in nearly all the countries of the world has together with the increase in the quantity of money kept pace with the increase in the demand for money in the broader sense, or fallen behind it, or outstripped it. All that we can be sure of is that at least a part of the increase in the demand for money in the broader sense has been robbed of its influence on the purchasing power of money by the increase in the quantity of money and fiduciary media in circulation."

"The very idea that the future is predictable, that some formulas could be substituted for the specific understanding which is the essence of entrepreneurial activity, and that familiarity with these formulas could make it possible for anybody to take over the conduct of business is, of course, an outgrowth of the whole complex of fallacies and misconceptions which are at the bottom of present-day anticapitalistic policies." Ludwig Von Mises- 


"In fact both the economists and the businessmen are fully aware of the uncertainty of the future. The businessmen realize that the economists do not dispense any reliable information about things to come and that all that they provide is interpretation of statistical data referring to the past. For the capitalists and entrepreneurs the economists' opinions about the future count only as questionable conjectures. They are skeptical and not easily fooled."


" The present unsatisfactory state of monetary affairs is an outcome of the social ideology to which our contemporaries are committed and of the economic policies which this ideology begets. People lament over inflation, but they enthusiastically support policies that could not go on without inflation. While they grumble about the inevitable consequences of inflation, they stubbornly oppose any attempt to stop or to restrict deficit spending." 

Financial Safety Services Graph category links








Graphs-US Government Debt Instruments + corporate bonds [updated 022721]


3 Month US Treasury Bill, 1980-'21

10 year US Treasury Bond, 1950- '21

20 year US Treasury Bond, 1950-'21

                                                        30 year US Treasury Bond, 1980-'21
           


Moodys Aaa rated corporate bonds, 1920-'21









                                                         

                                                          


                                                              
                   

Graphs- Foreign Currencies + Crypto-currencies [updated 101622]

Click here for:  Onebornfree's Financial Safety Reports [main page]


                                      Click here for: 
Graphs Main Index Page 

$US Versus Chinas Yuan, 1980-2020

$US v. $ Canada, 1970-22

$US v. Swiss Franc, 1970-22

$US versus Euro, 2000-'20


$US / UK Pound Exchange Rate, 1970-2022

Crypto-Currency / $US Prices:
 Please also see: 

"Do Not"Invest"In Bitcoin! [Or:How to Safely Profit With Bitcoin Etc.]"


Bitcoins per $US , 2015-21, log. Scale

Bitcoin Cash per $US, 2018-21, log. Scale

Ethereum per $US, 2017-21- log. scale

Litecoin per $US, 2017-21,log. scale













Graphs- Gold , silver ,copper, crude oil prices [updated 101622]

               
                 Silver bullion versus $US, 2017-21, log. scale

 $US Price per Metric Ton of Global Copper , 1990-2020,
 [log. scale]

$US Price per Barrel of Crude Oil, West Texas Intermediate, 1950-2020- [log. scale]

Graphs- Federal Reserve Money Supply [MB, M1, M2,] [updated 101622]

[ log scale]

              Federal Reserve Monetary Base [MB] Money Supply, 1960- '21 [ log scale]



 Federal Reserve M1 Money Supply, 2000- '22
 [ log scale]

Federal Reserve M1 Money Supply Velocity, 2000-2020, 
[log. scale]

                 Federal Reserve M1 Money Supply, 1960- '21 [ log scale]


Federal Reserve M2 Money Supply, 2000-'22 
[log scale]


Federal Reserve M2 Money Supply Velocity, 2000-2022, 
[log. scale]

Federal Reserve M2 Money Supply, 1980-'21 
[log scale]


Graphs- US Federal Government Debt Totals [updated 022721]


Gross US Federal Debt, 1940-2020- [log scale]

                 
                        US Federal Debt Held by Foreign Governments & Investors, 1970-2020 [log scale]

Graphs- US Stock Indexes [last updated 101522]


Click here for: Graphs Main Index Page 

Dow Jones Industrial Stock Averages, 2018-22, [log scale]

S&P 500 Stock Index, 2018-22, [log scale]


NASDAQ. Composite Stock Index, 2018-2022 [log scale]

Wilshire 5000 Stock Index, 2018-22 [log scale]













                                        

Saturday, July 13, 2019

The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

                              
                                          Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                                     email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance].

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

An Important Question For You, Dear Reader :


Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via the makeup of your own current savings/investment plans and choices? [or via the choices of your financial planner, investment advisor, or via an economist or related?] If so, then you are unknowingly endangering your long term savings.

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples:

The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For The Stock Market:

                    Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, 5 year performance [log. scale]

Real World Fact:  If you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

2] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Gold :


                  10 year Gold bullion $US price per 1 oz. London A.M. fix [log. scale]

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver etc. might actually all decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

3] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Cash and Cash Equivalents [TreasuryBonds,Bills etc.]:

                              30 year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates 2000 -2019

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

4] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Bitcoin and other Crypto-Currencies:

                                           Bitcoins per $US, 2015-19

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

5] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Real Estate, Art, Oil, a Private Business  etc. etc.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

6] : One More Real World Fact :  

Despite the fact that the big picture economic future must always remain unknown, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

                              Extra graphs of possible interest: 

                    Federal Reserve Monetary Base[ MB] 2014-19 [ Log. scale]

                   US Government 3 month Treasury Bill interest rates 1980-2018

                          U.S government gross debt, 1980-2019 [log. scale]


Percentage of US Federal debt held by foreign institutions,1980-2019, 
[log. scale]


             email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com