Economic Overview:Graph Updates-Federal Debt. Money Supply, Interest Rates, Stocks, Gold,Crypto, Inflation

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Wither the Economy?

Below, dear reader, are, for your consideration and entertainment,  various graphs I've recently compiled in an attempt to give some sort of "big-picture" overview of the state of the US economy right now, or, more accurately, as it was maybe a short while ago, given the fact that any graph becomes obsolete the minute it is published :-) .

WARNING! :

None of these graphs should be considered, either in isolation, or in total, as guides to the true future state of the US economy, and therefor then used to decide where to "invest" one's hard earned money!  

Why?

Because, the  economic future cannot be reliably and consistently predicted by graphs, cycle theory, investment advisors, portfolio managers, astrology. [For some relevant quotes, see here].

Free Advice?

If you would like to know what to do about this "dreadful" fact of reality [i.e. the inability of anyone to reliably and consistently predict future economic scenarios/prices etc.] please go to the bottom of this page and click the embedded link there to my article:

"How To Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc., Despite An Unknowable Economic Future"

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Inflation/Consumer Price Index [CPI]:

Consumer Price Index [CPI] - 2014-09/23

Federal Deficits/Debt:

Federal Deficits 1910-'23

 

 Federal Debt ,10 years.

Money Supply [MB, M1,M2]: 

 

Monetary Base [MB] 2014- 09/23. Log scale

M1- 2014- 09/23.Log scale

M1 Velocity, 2014- 09/23

M2 2014- 09/23.Log scale

M2 Velocity- 2014- 09/23

Treasury Bill/Bond Yields:

3 Month Treasury Bill Yields -2014 -09/23

10 Year Treasury Bond Yields- 2014- 09/23

30 Year Treasury Bond Yields- 2014- 09/23

Stock Market Indices:

Standard and Poors 500- 2014- 09/23. Log scale

Nasdaq- 2014- 0923

Gold Bullion:

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin + Ethereum:

                    Bitcoin v. $US, 2019- 0923. Log scale

 Ethereum 2017-'23, Log Scale

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Ad: The Great Economic and Investment Predictions Scam:

So what's Next? Inflation?Another Global Plandemic? Bank Failures?, A Stock Market Boom? Stock Market Crash? Deflation? Hyper-Inflation ? A Dollar crash? 

THIS "JUST" IN -

 A REALITY FACT THAT MOST EVERYONE IS IN COMPLETE DENIAL OF: 

NOBODY, INCLUDING ALL SO-CALLED "INVESTMENT EXPERTS" ECONOMISTS ETC., REALLY KNOWS FOR SURE!   

Question: 

So if nobody can reliably, consistently, predict the economic future, what can rhe individual do in light of this simple, yet hard to swallow, fact?  

See: "How To Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc., Despite An Unknowable Economic Future"

See also: 

Can Money Supply Figures Accurately Predict The Economic Future ?

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The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

                              

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Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance].

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

An Important Question For You, Dear Reader :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via the makeup of your own current savings/investment plans and choices? [or via the choices of your financial planner, investment advisor, or via an economist or related?] If so, then you are unknowingly endangering your long term savings.

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples:

The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For The Stock Market:

                    Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, 5 year performance [log. scale]

Real World Fact:  If you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

2] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Gold :

                  10 year Gold bullion $US price per 1 oz. London A.M. fix [log. scale]

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver etc. might actually all decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

3] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Cash and Cash Equivalents [TreasuryBonds,Bills etc.]:

                              30 year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates 2000 -2019

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

4] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Bitcoin and other Crypto-Currencies:

                                           Bitcoins per $US, 2015-19

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

5] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Real Estate, Art, Oil, a Private Business  etc. etc.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

6] : One More Real World Fact :  

Despite the fact that the big picture economic future must always remain unknown, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 


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                              Extra graphs of possible interest: 

                    Federal Reserve Monetary Base[ MB] 2014-19 [ Log. scale]

                   US Government 3 month Treasury Bill interest rates 1980-2018

                          U.S government gross debt, 1980-2019 [log. scale]

Percentage of US Federal debt held by foreign institutions,1980-2019, 

[log. scale]

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Your Precious Savings Versus The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

Your Precious Savings Versus The World's Best Kept Investment Secret
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Two  predictions from supposed "expert", famous, financial advisors :


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s_6K6xO9zE

“Soon something’s going to happen that will make everyone happy again and the market will go up one more time, and that will probably be the last hoorah. Next year will be not a lot of fun,” Rogers said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday."

Jim Rogers: Enjoy This Market Hoorah Before the Worst Correction of Your Lifetime


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWfoUuntUNc

Peter Schiff: Enjoy the Calm Before the Storm:

Meanwhile, Back In Reality - Some Real World Investment Facts For You: 

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:no one can accurately predict future economic events.

Real world fact [2]: its not  necessary for an individual to try to guess the financial/economic future in order to safeguard their savings from the ravages of an unknowable economic future.

An Important Question For You :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via your own current savings/investment choices? 

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples: 

Real world fact [3] (a): if you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](b) : if you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver might decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](c): if you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](d]): if you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

Real World Fact 4: despite real world facts 1,2, and 3 above, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7BOdxyAKgo

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"Blowhard" Predicts $1 Million BTC By 2020!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epObQ1AujyQ

"John McAfee, founder of McAfee Associates a well-known software company  has always been Bullish on Bitcoin, in fact, he has even been confrontational on the fact.

In July, with a lot of fear and uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin ahead of its Aug. 1 chain split, McAfee came forward and stated boldly that he was willing to stake his name and up to $10 mln on a bet that the Bitcoin price will move above $500,000 within three years or he would "eat my d**k on national television."

That prediction was seen as ludacris at the time, and many were left wondering how his on-screen promise would play out - however, now that Bitcoin has crossed $11,000, McAfee is not sitting back smugly, but rather raising the bar.

The outspoken tech mogul has now said:

“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 mln by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong.”

Source : "John McAfee Doubles Down, Predicts $1 Mln BTC, Bets His D**k On It" 

            [ obf sez: Too funny! Mr McAfee used some sort of supposedly "predictive" model of his to predict a future price, but he got it wrong, and so now, of course [:-) ], he has a new model to use! Whodathunkit? What could be simpler ? This "techno-narcissist" knows all! [because his latest model is infallible].

The underlying psychology of this person is no different from any other person using an economic model, be they an "investment advisor", an economist or something else. Just another know-it-all [great for entertainment value :-) ].

Summary: "Houston , You Have a Problem"

And so, dear reader, if you really believe that Mr McAfee [or any other "techno-geek", let alone any regular "investment expert"] can successfully, consistently predict the financial/economic future, via the implementation of some secret [ no doubt algorithm- rich] formula, then I would suggest that you, like Mr McAfee himself, have a serious problem and should seek help.

See: "Do Not"Invest"In Bitcoin! [Or:How to Safely Profit With Bitcoin Etc.] "

Also: The Folly of Forecasting

                     

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