Monday, January 23, 2012

Gerald Celente-The Strange Contradictions of a Fortune-Telling Gold Bug

[Mr Celente is an interesting character, for a number of reasons. He is one of many in the investment advisor field whose reputation appears to be founded on some kind of supposed natural ability to predict future economic events. However, I find the Daily Bell's interview, titled : "Gerald Celente on Trend Forecasting and the Crisis of Western Civilization" interesting because of how it reveals clear, fundamental contradictory beliefs of a "big name" in the investment/seer world, contradictory beliefs which may well contribute to his anger at the world, and in particular, to the world of markets and market phenomena, and which almost certainly have contributed to his ongoing anger over his recent investment troubles . The complete "Daily Bell" interview can be read at the first link above, while below I reproduce my own response to the article, which I had originally posted on the Daily Bell website. Enjoy -or not :-) ].

Great interview DB, maybe one of you best. Mr Celente comes across as an honest, intelligent and funny [humorous] man, if a little cantankerous at times. He even states at one point " I REALLY GET ANGRY! ".

As a person whose profession mostly consists of examining and deconstructing an individuals personal belief systems, with the goal of enabling them to lead freer, happier lives, , I could not help notice a two glaring contradictions in Mr Celente's statements; contradictions that I believe are probably the source of that expressed anger .

Internal Contradiction [1] : on predicting future events:

Gerald Celente [1a]: "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

Gerald Celente [1b]: "I believe the price is going up so in April I took contracts to take delivery in gold."

Onebornfree: to [1b], I would say, and I quote [1a] "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

The plain fact is that, whether we are talking about gold or some other class of investment, nobody can reliably, consistently predict an investment/ economic future either; there are, as he himself noted " too many wild cards." [Please see "Financial Safety Rule #1".]

Subconcious Prediction?

Whether Mr Celente or his followers care to admit it or not, putting all, [or the majority], of ones personal life savings into gold or other precious metals IS an attempted prediction [maybe a subconcious one]- a prediction of a certain type of economic future that is erroneously believed to be "certain" to occur within their own lifetimes, when the plain fact is, there is simply no way of knowing for certain that an economic future that favors gold to the degree imagined _will_ occur in their own lifetimes, or _ever_ occur [although I would say, as a former gold-bug myself still somewhat sympathetic to the cause, that the odds of his predicted scenario, or something close to it, _never_ occurring, appear slim.]

Summary: Mr Celente on the one hand believes that the future cannot be reliably predicted, and yet he appears to follow a saving/investment strategy that relies on doing exactly that [i.e. attempts to predict future economic events], and his reputation depends mostly on his perceived record for accurate predictions, of course.

I would guess that simultaneously holding such obviously internally contradictory beliefs concerning the predictability or not of future events is probably at least one source of some of his own expressed anger. [ Maybe he can only be really happy when his predictions are correct?].

Internal Contradiction [2] Political Religion:

Gerald Celente: [2a] "I don't believe in anybody's political religion. Knock yourself out. You want to believe in your fairytale, that's okay with me but don't lay it on me. Don't tell me I have to believe in your political garb because I REALLY GET ANGRY! Who are you to tell me I have to believe in your line of crap? Have you been there? Do you know what it looks like? I've been there."

Gerald Celente:[2b] "I want regulations. You need regulations because there would be no minimum wage. People would be paid nothing. The banks would be robbing us even more than they are. So I'm in favor of some... "

Onebornfree: The second statement [2b] here by Mr Celente ["I want regulations " etc.] , is a direct contradiction of statement [2a]: ["I don't believe in anybody's political religion... " ].

Mr Celente apparently believes in _his_ own political religion [i.e. "fairytale"], a "fairytale", fantasy world where wise men oversee/rule everyone else , make sure we all get paid and stop the banking systems screwing us etc., and run things the way he thinks they should, somehow without systemic corruption , despite the fact that there is _no_ record for any time in history when such men, or such a fair system existed.

Mr Celente appears to be unable/unwilling to face that simple, historical fact, and, instead of moving on to better things, appears to be inescapably bound to internal contradictions of major portions of his own belief system- no wonder he gets angry !

Regards, onebornfree.


Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.



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