Monday, January 23, 2012

Gerald Celente-The Strange Contradictions of a Fortune-Telling Gold Bug

[Mr Celente is an interesting character, for a number of reasons. He is one of many in the investment advisor field whose reputation appears to be founded on some kind of supposed natural ability to predict future economic events. However, I find the Daily Bell's interview, titled : "Gerald Celente on Trend Forecasting and the Crisis of Western Civilization" interesting because of how it reveals clear, fundamental contradictory beliefs of a "big name" in the investment/seer world, contradictory beliefs which may well contribute to his anger at the world, and in particular, to the world of markets and market phenomena, and which almost certainly have contributed to his ongoing anger over his recent investment troubles . The complete "Daily Bell" interview can be read at the first link above, while below I reproduce my own response to the article, which I had originally posted on the Daily Bell website. Enjoy -or not :-) ].



Great interview DB, maybe one of you best. Mr Celente comes across as an honest, intelligent and funny [humorous] man, if a little cantankerous at times. He even states at one point " I REALLY GET ANGRY! ".

As a person whose profession mostly consists of examining and deconstructing an individuals personal belief systems, with the goal of enabling them to lead freer, happier lives, , I could not help notice a two glaring contradictions in Mr Celente's statements; contradictions that I believe are probably the source of that expressed anger .


Internal Contradiction [1] : on predicting future events:

Gerald Celente [1a]: "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

Gerald Celente [1b]: "I believe the price is going up so in April I took contracts to take delivery in gold."

Onebornfree: to [1b], I would say, and I quote [1a] "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

The plain fact is that, whether we are talking about gold or some other class of investment, nobody can reliably, consistently predict an investment/ economic future either; there are, as he himself noted " too many wild cards." [Please see "Financial Safety Rule #1".]

Subconcious Prediction?

Whether Mr Celente or his followers care to admit it or not, putting all, [or the majority], of ones personal life savings into gold or other precious metals IS an attempted prediction [maybe a subconcious one]- a prediction of a certain type of economic future that is erroneously believed to be "certain" to occur within their own lifetimes, when the plain fact is, there is simply no way of knowing for certain that an economic future that favors gold to the degree imagined _will_ occur in their own lifetimes, or _ever_ occur [although I would say, as a former gold-bug myself still somewhat sympathetic to the cause, that the odds of his predicted scenario, or something close to it, _never_ occurring, appear slim.]

Summary: Mr Celente on the one hand believes that the future cannot be reliably predicted, and yet he appears to follow a saving/investment strategy that relies on doing exactly that [i.e. attempts to predict future economic events], and his reputation depends mostly on his perceived record for accurate predictions, of course.

I would guess that simultaneously holding such obviously internally contradictory beliefs concerning the predictability or not of future events is probably at least one source of some of his own expressed anger. [ Maybe he can only be really happy when his predictions are correct?].

Internal Contradiction [2] Political Religion:

Gerald Celente: [2a] "I don't believe in anybody's political religion. Knock yourself out. You want to believe in your fairytale, that's okay with me but don't lay it on me. Don't tell me I have to believe in your political garb because I REALLY GET ANGRY! Who are you to tell me I have to believe in your line of crap? Have you been there? Do you know what it looks like? I've been there."

Gerald Celente:[2b] "I want regulations. You need regulations because there would be no minimum wage. People would be paid nothing. The banks would be robbing us even more than they are. So I'm in favor of some... "

Onebornfree: The second statement [2b] here by Mr Celente ["I want regulations " etc.] , is a direct contradiction of statement [2a]: ["I don't believe in anybody's political religion... " ].

Mr Celente apparently believes in _his_ own political religion [i.e. "fairytale"], a "fairytale", fantasy world where wise men oversee/rule everyone else , make sure we all get paid and stop the banking systems screwing us etc., and run things the way he thinks they should, somehow without systemic corruption , despite the fact that there is _no_ record for any time in history when such men, or such a fair system existed.

Mr Celente appears to be unable/unwilling to face that simple, historical fact, and, instead of moving on to better things, appears to be inescapably bound to internal contradictions of major portions of his own belief system- no wonder he gets angry !

Regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

No comments:

Post a Comment