Showing posts with label Investment psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investment psychology. Show all posts

Monday, September 29, 2014

Long Term Savings Plan Results Update [1972- 2011]

[Financial Safety Services commentary: this is a repost of an article posted here a number of years ago, the only difference being that the results for the Long Term Savings plan  have now been updated to show results through 2011, instead of ending at 2004. Regards, onebornfree.]
Email Financial Safety Services/onebornfree: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom]

Fig.1: Long-term savings plan results 1972-2011, starting with 
                                              a $10,000 investment in the plan.                                                                      
[Click on image to enlarge] .
                   N.B. : numerical results for this chart are given at the bottom of this page.
                           
                 Graph Key:
  
            Long term savings plan
..............      = Stocks
- - - - - - -   =   Bonds

- - - - - - - -   =  Gold
                                        - - - - - - - -  =  Cash

Financial Safety and Investment Truth That You Don't Want to Hear:

Financial Safety Rule #1 says: " despite many claims to the contrary, no one, not even your favorite economist or investment advisor, can reliably, and consistently, predict future economic events."

That being the case, in order to broadly protect your savings from unforeseen and unforeseeable economic events/scenarios, you must take two very important steps:

Financial Safety Step [1]:

divide your savings into two distinct, not to be mixed, categories:

a] money that you cannot afford to lose.

b] money you can afford to lose.

If you have no money for category [b], don't worry, it is not as important, category [a] is much more important as it will contain long term savings for retirement etc.

Financial Safety Step [2]:

having completed step [1], you must then set about constructing a long term savings plan for the money you cannot afford to lose [a], one that broadly self-protects/ insures itself against unforeseen economic events [i.e recession, deflation,hyper inflation etc.] as far as possible without you having to do any daily, weekly or monthly buying, selling or trading, and without the need for you to make predictions about future economic events, and which boasts the inflation beating results shown in the graph above for the long-term savings plan that I have personally recommended for more than 20 years, and that is, at the same time, also able to automatically profit from those unforeseen "economic good times" if and when they occur in that unknown future.

This plan has produced annual gains averaging between 6-9% above the annual rate of inflation for 30 + years, with no buying or selling involved outside a once per end of the year buy/sell re-adjustment to restore percentage allocations for each investment class back to their original, beginning of year allocations .

If you are seriously interested in such a long term savings plan, let me know.*

Do You Have Money You Can Afford To Lose?

Also, if after taking financial safety steps 1] and 2] you find that you have money that you can afford to lose [category [b]], and need some guidelines for safe speculation, let me know.

For more truth that you probably don't want to know, stay tuned to this blog!

Regards,Onebornfreeatyahoodotcom


                                                                                                                         Total Return                Growth with
     Year          Stocks               Bonds          Cash       Gold            Long -Term                         Long- Term
                                                                                                                  Savings Plan                 Savings Plan
  



More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

Nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large. Internet posts are therfor not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I likewise have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make at this site they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

More About "Onebornfree":

"Onebornfree" is a personal freedom consultant and a musician. He can be reached at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom  .

Onebornfree  Blogs: 
                                                                                         
 Onebornfree's Financial Safety blog[ Investment philosophy blog]

Onebornfree's 9/11Research Review blog[ A personal review of the state of 9/11 research]


The Freedom Network [ home page for the Freedom Network]

The Problem-Solver [Personal Freedom consulting]

Music Info: 

Onebornfree's [aka Fake-Eye D"] Music channel [Studio mixes + live solo recordings]

Fake Eye D's soundCloud channel [ no videos, so faster download]





Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Mark Tier on Effective Investing, Where the World Is Headed and Why Financial Literacy Helps

Onebornfree commentary: for myself, the best part of this long but highly informative interview of investor Mark Tier [conducted by The Daily Bell], is his observation of the extreme importance of investor psychology in all successful investing/speculating.

Indeed, as an educational service, Financial Safety Services spends most of its time with clients analyzing their individual psychologies/belief systems [i.e their preconceptions, assumptions and fundamental beliefs about markets, economics, human action etc. etc.] , in order to try to help them achieve better results with their speculations.

Mr Tier also provides a link to a short investment psychology test he invented that attempts to analyze your own strengths and weaknesses. It is well worth a "go", as is the entire interview.

In fact I agree with just about everything Mr Tier [who I had never heard of before] says in this interview [!] , so much so that if you read anything in it you do not agree with, feel free to email me at : onebornfree at yahoo dot com and we can perhaps discuss your questions/problems/observations/ disagreements.


Link to entire Daily Bell Mark Tier Interview here

About Mark Tier :" Mark Tier is an Australian based in Hong Kong partly because “paying taxes is against my religion.” Founder and (until 1991) publisher of the investment newsletter World Money Analyst, he’s the author of Understanding Inflation, How To Get A Second Passport, The Nature of Market Cycles and The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros. His latest works are entirely outside the investment field: When God Speaks for Himself: The Words of God You’ll Never Hear in Church or Sunday School (written with George Forrai), and the just-published Trust Your Enemies, a political thriller, a story of power and corruption, love and betrayal − and moral redemption ..."


Regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Monday, January 23, 2012

Gerald Celente-The Strange Contradictions of a Fortune-Telling Gold Bug

[Mr Celente is an interesting character, for a number of reasons. He is one of many in the investment advisor field whose reputation appears to be founded on some kind of supposed natural ability to predict future economic events. However, I find the Daily Bell's interview, titled : "Gerald Celente on Trend Forecasting and the Crisis of Western Civilization" interesting because of how it reveals clear, fundamental contradictory beliefs of a "big name" in the investment/seer world, contradictory beliefs which may well contribute to his anger at the world, and in particular, to the world of markets and market phenomena, and which almost certainly have contributed to his ongoing anger over his recent investment troubles . The complete "Daily Bell" interview can be read at the first link above, while below I reproduce my own response to the article, which I had originally posted on the Daily Bell website. Enjoy -or not :-) ].



Great interview DB, maybe one of you best. Mr Celente comes across as an honest, intelligent and funny [humorous] man, if a little cantankerous at times. He even states at one point " I REALLY GET ANGRY! ".

As a person whose profession mostly consists of examining and deconstructing an individuals personal belief systems, with the goal of enabling them to lead freer, happier lives, , I could not help notice a two glaring contradictions in Mr Celente's statements; contradictions that I believe are probably the source of that expressed anger .


Internal Contradiction [1] : on predicting future events:

Gerald Celente [1a]: "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

Gerald Celente [1b]: "I believe the price is going up so in April I took contracts to take delivery in gold."

Onebornfree: to [1b], I would say, and I quote [1a] "Nobody can predict the future - there's too many wild cards."

The plain fact is that, whether we are talking about gold or some other class of investment, nobody can reliably, consistently predict an investment/ economic future either; there are, as he himself noted " too many wild cards." [Please see "Financial Safety Rule #1".]

Subconcious Prediction?

Whether Mr Celente or his followers care to admit it or not, putting all, [or the majority], of ones personal life savings into gold or other precious metals IS an attempted prediction [maybe a subconcious one]- a prediction of a certain type of economic future that is erroneously believed to be "certain" to occur within their own lifetimes, when the plain fact is, there is simply no way of knowing for certain that an economic future that favors gold to the degree imagined _will_ occur in their own lifetimes, or _ever_ occur [although I would say, as a former gold-bug myself still somewhat sympathetic to the cause, that the odds of his predicted scenario, or something close to it, _never_ occurring, appear slim.]

Summary: Mr Celente on the one hand believes that the future cannot be reliably predicted, and yet he appears to follow a saving/investment strategy that relies on doing exactly that [i.e. attempts to predict future economic events], and his reputation depends mostly on his perceived record for accurate predictions, of course.

I would guess that simultaneously holding such obviously internally contradictory beliefs concerning the predictability or not of future events is probably at least one source of some of his own expressed anger. [ Maybe he can only be really happy when his predictions are correct?].

Internal Contradiction [2] Political Religion:

Gerald Celente: [2a] "I don't believe in anybody's political religion. Knock yourself out. You want to believe in your fairytale, that's okay with me but don't lay it on me. Don't tell me I have to believe in your political garb because I REALLY GET ANGRY! Who are you to tell me I have to believe in your line of crap? Have you been there? Do you know what it looks like? I've been there."

Gerald Celente:[2b] "I want regulations. You need regulations because there would be no minimum wage. People would be paid nothing. The banks would be robbing us even more than they are. So I'm in favor of some... "

Onebornfree: The second statement [2b] here by Mr Celente ["I want regulations " etc.] , is a direct contradiction of statement [2a]: ["I don't believe in anybody's political religion... " ].

Mr Celente apparently believes in _his_ own political religion [i.e. "fairytale"], a "fairytale", fantasy world where wise men oversee/rule everyone else , make sure we all get paid and stop the banking systems screwing us etc., and run things the way he thinks they should, somehow without systemic corruption , despite the fact that there is _no_ record for any time in history when such men, or such a fair system existed.

Mr Celente appears to be unable/unwilling to face that simple, historical fact, and, instead of moving on to better things, appears to be inescapably bound to internal contradictions of major portions of his own belief system- no wonder he gets angry !

Regards, onebornfree.

DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .


********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom