Financial Safety Reports from Financial Safety Services:
Exploring and exposing common economic, investment and speculation philosophies and myths that will endanger your long term savings, your short term speculations, your financial safety and your financial privacy.
Obviously, the Fed under Janet Yellen has been gradually decreasing the Monetary Base [MB], that is, the most narrow, generally considered most liquid, money supply figure, since at least the 3rd quarter of 2016:
Fig. 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Base, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, [Fed Chair J. Yellen],
January 2014 - December 2016, Millions of $'s, Log scale
Financial Safety Services Commentary:
Exactly What Does The Fed's Monetary Tightening Mean?:
It could mean that a recession, at the very least, is on the way during the new presidents [Donald Trump] first term. [ Basically, a recession within an ongoing recession/depression].
It is impossible to know for certain, and the picture becomes ever more cloudy if we go back and look at the enormous monetary base manipulations that have occurred since 2008 [ via Ms. Yellen's predecessor, Ben Bernanke]:
Fig. 2: Monetary Base [MB] , Millions of $'s, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, Federal Reserve, '07- Dec.2016, Log. Scale
Will this more recent tightening under Yellen have any effect on dampening the effects of the massive Fed monetary base injections of the recent past? Maybe, maybe not. The longer the tightening continues, the more likely it is to actually have an effect and initiate a "Trump recession", in theory at least.
However, here is some good news: it is entirely unnecessary for you to have to try to predict/forecast future economic events from graphs [or similar], or to have to rely on [and pay] someone else to do that for you.
A real world fact: the economic future cannot be accurately predicted via any graph, no matter who constructed it, or what it claims to show. If you need to know why that is so, then for a very large fee, I can explain to you exactly why all graphs are useless for predicting future economic events. :-)