Will The Yellen Fed Cause a Trump Recession?

 Financial Safety Services disclaimer

Ms. Janet Yellen. Fed Chair since Feb. 3rd 2014

The graph below explains the title of this post.

 Obviously, the Fed under Janet Yellen has been gradually decreasing the Monetary Base [MB], that is, the most narrow, generally considered most liquid, money supply figure, since at least the 3rd quarter of 2016:

Fig. 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Base, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, [Fed Chair J. Yellen], 

 January 2014 - December 2016, Millions of $'s, Log scale

Financial Safety Services Commentary:

Exactly What Does The Fed's  Monetary Tightening Mean?: 

It could mean that a recession, at the very least, is on the way during the new  presidents [Donald Trump] first term. [ Basically, a recession within an  ongoing recession/depression]. 

It is impossible to know for certain, and  the picture becomes ever more cloudy if we go back and look at the enormous monetary base  manipulations that have occurred since 2008 [ via Ms. Yellen's predecessor, Ben Bernanke]:

Fig. 2: Monetary Base [MB] , Millions of $'s, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, Federal Reserve, '07- Dec.2016, Log. Scale

Will this more recent tightening under Yellen have any effect on dampening the  effects of the massive Fed monetary base injections of the recent past? Maybe, maybe not. The longer the tightening continues, the more likely it is to actually have an effect and initiate a "Trump recession", in theory at least. 

Good News!

However, here is some good news: it is entirely unnecessary  for  you to have to try to predict/forecast future economic events from graphs [or similar], or to have to rely on [and pay] someone else to do that for you. 

A real world fact: the economic future cannot be accurately predicted via any graph, no matter who constructed it,  or what it claims to show. If you need to know why that is so, then for a very large fee, I can explain to you exactly why all graphs are useless for predicting future economic events.  :-)  

So, if you are worried about your own savings either because of, or despite what is revealed in these graphs/figures, here is some free advice on how to best protect your savings etc.

Regards, onebornfree.

 onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

Financial Safety Services disclaimer

Related Articles: "Mr. Ben Bernanke: The Great[est] Inflator ?" 

"What’s Next: Deflation, Inflation, or Hyperinflation?" 

Three More [Broader], Money Supply Graphs :

Fig. 3: M1 Money Supply, Non-Seasonally Adjusted,  Billions of $'s, Federal Reserve, '07- Dec.2016, Log. Scale

 Fig. 4: M2 Money Supply, Non-Seasonally Adjusted,  Billions of $'s, Federal Reserve, '07- Dec.2016, Log. Scale

Fig. 5: MZM Money Supply, Non-Seasonally Adjusted,  Billions of $'s, Federal Reserve, '07- Dec.2016, Log. Scale

Interest Rates: 

Fig. 6 U.S. 3 month Treasury Bill Interest Rates, January '07-December '16, Monthly Averages, 

Log scale

Fig. 7:U.S. 10 year Treasury Bond Interest Rates, January '07-December '16, Monthly Averages, 

Log scale.

 Fig. 8:U.S. 30 year Treasury Bond Interest Rates, January '07-December '16, Monthly Averages, 

Log scale.

Operation Screw [You]

[Financial Safety Services commentary: a good analysis of how the US central bank, AKA the Federal Reserve, plans to "stimulate" the still sagging US economy. {Or to "screw" you out of your future money, if you prefer :-) }

Of course, as Mr Schiff points out, the Feds plan ultimately only makes things worse and guarantees at some point down the road an economic recession even worse that the one the U. S. is now in . 

The problem for the saver/investor [and for Mr. Schiff] is that the financial future cannot be reliably predicted, so there is no telling when this even worse scenario might occur- it could be next month or next year, or it could be years and years away.

 It is even possible that in the meantime that the economy will enjoy, once again,  false"good times" as indeed the Fed policies are designed to promote, although it/they would never admit to the "false" part.  

Outlandish/ridiculous  as the Fed's moves might seem to you and I, the bald fact is that ultimately there is simply no reliable way to accurately  forecast future economic  events, which means that to protect your long term savings from  an unpredictable future, long term savings {i.e. money you cannot afford to lose}, should be kept in a savings plan able to match the long term results of the plan outlined here. 

Future Speculative Opportunities of the Fed Actions?: On the other hand, money you can afford to lose should be kept entirely separately from your long term savings plan, and then used to speculate {or "play"} with, while perhaps enjoying the pretense that you, or your financial advisor, can accurately predict future economic events. That money, should you be lucky enough to have "play money" to speculate with in the first place, could be "invested" in gold, real estate, stocks, or whatever other vehicle you or your advisor might think would benefit from a new, false "good times" due to the Fed's attempted manipulations. 

Or, if on the other hand you or your advisor believe that instead, "bad times" "must" shortly ensue, you can use that " I can afford to lose it" play money to "invest" accordingly also.

Of course, even in playful speculations, it is usually wise to employ certain precautions such automatic stop-losses, limit orders etc. [ Ask about my currently under revision guide to principles of safe, successful speculations, @ $250 a "pop"!}.   

Regards, onebornfree.   ]  : 

Operation Screw
by Peter Schiff
Article source

"With yesterday's Fed decision and press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke finally and decisively laid his cards on the table. And confirming what I have been saying for many years, all he was holding was more of the same snake oil and bluster. Going further than he has ever gone before, he made it clear that he will be permanently binding the American economy to a losing strategy. As a result, September 13, 2012 may one day be regarded as the day America finally threw in the economic towel.

"Here is the outline of the Fed's plan: buy hundreds of billions of home mortgages annually in order to push down mortgage rates and push up home prices, thereby encouraging people to build and buy homes and spend the extracted equity on consumer goods. Furthermore, the Fed hopes that ultra-cheap money will push up stock prices so that Wall Street and stock investors feel wealthier and begin to spend more freely. He won't admit this directly, but rather than building an economy on increased productivity, production, and wealth accumulation, he is trying to build one on confidence, increased leverage, and rising asset prices. In other words, the Fed prefers the illusion of growth to the restructuring needed to allow for real growth."

"The problem that went unnoticed by the reporters at the Fed's press conference (and those who have written about it subsequently) is that we already tried this strategy and it ended in disaster. Loose monetary policy created the housing and stock bubbles of the last decade, the bursting of which almost blew up the economy. Apparently for Bernanke and his cohorts, almost isn't good enough. They are coming back to finish the job. But this time, they are packing weaponry of a much higher caliber. Not only are they pushing mortgage rates down to historical lows but now they are buying all the loans!

"Last year, the Fed launched the so-called "Operation Twist," which was designed to lower long-term interest rates and flatten the yield curve. Without creating any real benefits for the economy, the move exposed US taxpayers and holders of dollar-based assets to the dangers of shortening the maturity on $16 trillion of outstanding government debt. Such a repositioning exposes the Treasury to much faster and more painful consequences if interest rates rise. Still, the set of policies announced yesterday will do so much more damage than "Operation Twist," they should be dubbed "Operation Screw." Because make no mistake, anyone holding US dollars, Treasury bonds, or living on a fixed income will have their purchasing power stolen by these actions.

Prior injections of quantitative easing have done little to revive our economy or set us on a path for real recovery. We are now in more debt, have more people out of work, and have deeper fiscal problems than we had before the Fed began down this path. All the supporters can say is things would have been worse absent the stimulus. While counterfactual arguments are hard to prove, I do not doubt that things would have been worse in the short-term if we had simply allowed the imbalances of the old economy to work themselves out. But in exchange for that pain, I believe that we would be on the road to a real recovery. Instead, we have artificially sustained a borrow-and-spend model that puts us farther away from solid ground.

Because the initials of quantitative easing – QE – have brought to mind the famous Queen Elizabeth cruise ships, many have likened these Fed moves as giant vessels that are loaded up and sent out to sea. But based on their newly announced plans, the analogy no longer applies. As the new commitments are open-ended, quantitative easing will now be delivered via a non-stop conveyor belt that dumps cheap money on the economy. The only variable is how fast the belt moves.

Fortunately, the crude limitations of the Fed's only policy tool have become more apparent to the markets. If you must stick with the nautical metaphors, QE3 has sunk before it has even left port. The move was explicitly designed to push down long-term interest rates, but interest rates spiked significantly in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. Traders realize that an open-ended commitment to buying bonds means that inflation and dollar weakness will likely destroy any nominal gains in the bonds themselves. To underscore this point, the Fed announcement also caused a sharp selloff in Treasuries and the dollar and a strong rally in commodities, especially precious metals.

Given that 30-year fixed mortgages are already at historic lows, there can be little confidence that the new plan will succeed in pushing them much lower, especially given the upward spike that occurred in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. Instead, Bernanke is likely trying to provide the confidence home owners need to exchange fixed-rate mortgages for lower adjustable rate loans – which would free up more cash for current consumer spending. He is looking for homeowners to do their own twist. If he succeeds, more homeowners will be vulnerable to increasing rates, which will further limit the Fed's future ability to increase rates to fight rising prices.

The goal of the plan is to create consumer purchasing power by raising home and stock prices. No one seems to be considering the likelihood that unending QE will fail to lift bond, stock, or home prices, but will instead bleed straight through to higher prices for food, energy, and other consumer staples. If that occurs, consumers will have less purchasing power as a result of Bernanke's efforts, not more.

The Fed decision comes at the same time as the situation in Europe is finally moving out of urgent crisis mode. While I do not think the ECB's decision to underwrite more sovereign debt from troubled EU members will work out well in the long term, at least those moves have come with some German strings attached [For more on this, see John Browne's article from earlier this week]. As a result, I feel that the attention of currency traders may now shift to the poor fundamentals of the US dollar, rather than the potential for a breakup of the euro.

In the meantime, the implications for American investors should be clear. The Fed will try to conjure a recovery on the backs of currency debasement. It will not stop or alter from this course. If the economy fails to respond to the drugs, Bernanke will simply up the dosage. In fact, he is so convinced we will remain dependent on quantitative easing that he explicitly said he won't turn off the spigots even if things noticeably improve. In other words, the dollar is screwed."

September 15, 2012

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Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

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