Financial Safety Services Special Reports-11th. Nov. 2019

 "No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment "expert" advisor, no banker, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer algorithm, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance"- Onebornfree.

      About Financial Safety Services

                              

    Financial Safety Services Disclaimer 

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Whither The Economy?  Some Recent "Expert" Market Predictions:

Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index 5 Year performance-[log scale]

[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"Expert" Prediction [1]-An Inflationary Depression Is Definitely Coming Soon!:

Gold bullion/$US price per Troy ounce, 10 years [log scale]

[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said the service sector is about to follow manufacturing into recession. He also talked about the recent employment numbers and explained how the Fed is acting like a Soviet Politburo.":An Inflationary Depression

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aji7x4F4nOI

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"Expert" Prediction[2]: An October Stock Market Crash Is Definitely Coming!:

“It’s all hype…” “It’s clickbait…” “It’s fearmongering…”. That’s just some of what folks are saying about my prediction that the stock market will crash this month.

I can’t blame them for being skeptical. After all, the financial industry is full of folks who make scary predictions just to capture headlines and get their “15 minutes of fame.” But what if I’m not one of those people?....................And what if I’m noticing that many conditions in the stock market today are eerily similar to conditions that have preceded bear markets before?.....":

The Last Time This Happened, the Stock Market Crashed…

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Financial Safety Services Commentary:

Attention dear reader! This"just"in: 

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer program, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance]. 

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

And yet,despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently predicted by anyone, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of that unknowable economic future!

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       Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                 About Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services 

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"If it were possible to calculate the future structure of the market, the future would not be uncertain. There would be neither entrepreneurial loss nor profit. What people expect from the economists is beyond the power of any mortal man."  Ludwig Von Mises

More Von Mises quotes here

Your Precious Savings Versus The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

Your Precious Savings Versus The World's Best Kept Investment Secret
Financial Safety Services disclaimer

Two  predictions from supposed "expert", famous, financial advisors :


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s_6K6xO9zE

“Soon something’s going to happen that will make everyone happy again and the market will go up one more time, and that will probably be the last hoorah. Next year will be not a lot of fun,” Rogers said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday."

Jim Rogers: Enjoy This Market Hoorah Before the Worst Correction of Your Lifetime


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWfoUuntUNc

Peter Schiff: Enjoy the Calm Before the Storm:

Meanwhile, Back In Reality - Some Real World Investment Facts For You: 

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:no one can accurately predict future economic events.

Real world fact [2]: its not  necessary for an individual to try to guess the financial/economic future in order to safeguard their savings from the ravages of an unknowable economic future.

An Important Question For You :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via your own current savings/investment choices? 

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples: 

Real world fact [3] (a): if you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](b) : if you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver might decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](c): if you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

[3](d]): if you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

Real World Fact 4: despite real world facts 1,2, and 3 above, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7BOdxyAKgo

Financial Safety Services disclaimer
email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Operation Screw [You]

[Financial Safety Services commentary: a good analysis of how the US central bank, AKA the Federal Reserve, plans to "stimulate" the still sagging US economy. {Or to "screw" you out of your future money, if you prefer :-) }

Of course, as Mr Schiff points out, the Feds plan ultimately only makes things worse and guarantees at some point down the road an economic recession even worse that the one the U. S. is now in . 

The problem for the saver/investor [and for Mr. Schiff] is that the financial future cannot be reliably predicted, so there is no telling when this even worse scenario might occur- it could be next month or next year, or it could be years and years away.

 It is even possible that in the meantime that the economy will enjoy, once again,  false"good times" as indeed the Fed policies are designed to promote, although it/they would never admit to the "false" part.  

Outlandish/ridiculous  as the Fed's moves might seem to you and I, the bald fact is that ultimately there is simply no reliable way to accurately  forecast future economic  events, which means that to protect your long term savings from  an unpredictable future, long term savings {i.e. money you cannot afford to lose}, should be kept in a savings plan able to match the long term results of the plan outlined here. 

Future Speculative Opportunities of the Fed Actions?: On the other hand, money you can afford to lose should be kept entirely separately from your long term savings plan, and then used to speculate {or "play"} with, while perhaps enjoying the pretense that you, or your financial advisor, can accurately predict future economic events. That money, should you be lucky enough to have "play money" to speculate with in the first place, could be "invested" in gold, real estate, stocks, or whatever other vehicle you or your advisor might think would benefit from a new, false "good times" due to the Fed's attempted manipulations. 

Or, if on the other hand you or your advisor believe that instead, "bad times" "must" shortly ensue, you can use that " I can afford to lose it" play money to "invest" accordingly also.

Of course, even in playful speculations, it is usually wise to employ certain precautions such automatic stop-losses, limit orders etc. [ Ask about my currently under revision guide to principles of safe, successful speculations, @ $250 a "pop"!}.   

Regards, onebornfree.   ]  : 

Operation Screw
by Peter Schiff
Article source

"With yesterday's Fed decision and press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke finally and decisively laid his cards on the table. And confirming what I have been saying for many years, all he was holding was more of the same snake oil and bluster. Going further than he has ever gone before, he made it clear that he will be permanently binding the American economy to a losing strategy. As a result, September 13, 2012 may one day be regarded as the day America finally threw in the economic towel.

"Here is the outline of the Fed's plan: buy hundreds of billions of home mortgages annually in order to push down mortgage rates and push up home prices, thereby encouraging people to build and buy homes and spend the extracted equity on consumer goods. Furthermore, the Fed hopes that ultra-cheap money will push up stock prices so that Wall Street and stock investors feel wealthier and begin to spend more freely. He won't admit this directly, but rather than building an economy on increased productivity, production, and wealth accumulation, he is trying to build one on confidence, increased leverage, and rising asset prices. In other words, the Fed prefers the illusion of growth to the restructuring needed to allow for real growth."

"The problem that went unnoticed by the reporters at the Fed's press conference (and those who have written about it subsequently) is that we already tried this strategy and it ended in disaster. Loose monetary policy created the housing and stock bubbles of the last decade, the bursting of which almost blew up the economy. Apparently for Bernanke and his cohorts, almost isn't good enough. They are coming back to finish the job. But this time, they are packing weaponry of a much higher caliber. Not only are they pushing mortgage rates down to historical lows but now they are buying all the loans!

"Last year, the Fed launched the so-called "Operation Twist," which was designed to lower long-term interest rates and flatten the yield curve. Without creating any real benefits for the economy, the move exposed US taxpayers and holders of dollar-based assets to the dangers of shortening the maturity on $16 trillion of outstanding government debt. Such a repositioning exposes the Treasury to much faster and more painful consequences if interest rates rise. Still, the set of policies announced yesterday will do so much more damage than "Operation Twist," they should be dubbed "Operation Screw." Because make no mistake, anyone holding US dollars, Treasury bonds, or living on a fixed income will have their purchasing power stolen by these actions.

Prior injections of quantitative easing have done little to revive our economy or set us on a path for real recovery. We are now in more debt, have more people out of work, and have deeper fiscal problems than we had before the Fed began down this path. All the supporters can say is things would have been worse absent the stimulus. While counterfactual arguments are hard to prove, I do not doubt that things would have been worse in the short-term if we had simply allowed the imbalances of the old economy to work themselves out. But in exchange for that pain, I believe that we would be on the road to a real recovery. Instead, we have artificially sustained a borrow-and-spend model that puts us farther away from solid ground.

Because the initials of quantitative easing – QE – have brought to mind the famous Queen Elizabeth cruise ships, many have likened these Fed moves as giant vessels that are loaded up and sent out to sea. But based on their newly announced plans, the analogy no longer applies. As the new commitments are open-ended, quantitative easing will now be delivered via a non-stop conveyor belt that dumps cheap money on the economy. The only variable is how fast the belt moves.

Fortunately, the crude limitations of the Fed's only policy tool have become more apparent to the markets. If you must stick with the nautical metaphors, QE3 has sunk before it has even left port. The move was explicitly designed to push down long-term interest rates, but interest rates spiked significantly in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. Traders realize that an open-ended commitment to buying bonds means that inflation and dollar weakness will likely destroy any nominal gains in the bonds themselves. To underscore this point, the Fed announcement also caused a sharp selloff in Treasuries and the dollar and a strong rally in commodities, especially precious metals.

Given that 30-year fixed mortgages are already at historic lows, there can be little confidence that the new plan will succeed in pushing them much lower, especially given the upward spike that occurred in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. Instead, Bernanke is likely trying to provide the confidence home owners need to exchange fixed-rate mortgages for lower adjustable rate loans – which would free up more cash for current consumer spending. He is looking for homeowners to do their own twist. If he succeeds, more homeowners will be vulnerable to increasing rates, which will further limit the Fed's future ability to increase rates to fight rising prices.

The goal of the plan is to create consumer purchasing power by raising home and stock prices. No one seems to be considering the likelihood that unending QE will fail to lift bond, stock, or home prices, but will instead bleed straight through to higher prices for food, energy, and other consumer staples. If that occurs, consumers will have less purchasing power as a result of Bernanke's efforts, not more.

The Fed decision comes at the same time as the situation in Europe is finally moving out of urgent crisis mode. While I do not think the ECB's decision to underwrite more sovereign debt from troubled EU members will work out well in the long term, at least those moves have come with some German strings attached [For more on this, see John Browne's article from earlier this week]. As a result, I feel that the attention of currency traders may now shift to the poor fundamentals of the US dollar, rather than the potential for a breakup of the euro.

In the meantime, the implications for American investors should be clear. The Fed will try to conjure a recovery on the backs of currency debasement. It will not stop or alter from this course. If the economy fails to respond to the drugs, Bernanke will simply up the dosage. In fact, he is so convinced we will remain dependent on quantitative easing that he explicitly said he won't turn off the spigots even if things noticeably improve. In other words, the dollar is screwed."

September 15, 2012

FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .

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More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!

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