Financial Safety Services Special Reports-11th. Nov. 2019

 "No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment "expert" advisor, no banker, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer algorithm, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance"- Onebornfree.

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Whither The Economy?  Some Recent "Expert" Market Predictions:

Standard and Poors 500 Stock Index 5 Year performance-[log scale]

[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"Expert" Prediction [1]-An Inflationary Depression Is Definitely Coming Soon!:

Gold bullion/$US price per Troy ounce, 10 years [log scale]

[N.B. more stock market, commodity, crypto-currency, money supply etc. graphs here]

"In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said the service sector is about to follow manufacturing into recession. He also talked about the recent employment numbers and explained how the Fed is acting like a Soviet Politburo.":An Inflationary Depression

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aji7x4F4nOI

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"Expert" Prediction[2]: An October Stock Market Crash Is Definitely Coming!:

“It’s all hype…” “It’s clickbait…” “It’s fearmongering…”. That’s just some of what folks are saying about my prediction that the stock market will crash this month.

I can’t blame them for being skeptical. After all, the financial industry is full of folks who make scary predictions just to capture headlines and get their “15 minutes of fame.” But what if I’m not one of those people?....................And what if I’m noticing that many conditions in the stock market today are eerily similar to conditions that have preceded bear markets before?.....":

The Last Time This Happened, the Stock Market Crashed…

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Financial Safety Services Commentary:

Attention dear reader! This"just"in: 

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no computer program, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance]. 

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

And yet,despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently predicted by anyone, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of that unknowable economic future!

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       Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                 About Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services 

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"If it were possible to calculate the future structure of the market, the future would not be uncertain. There would be neither entrepreneurial loss nor profit. What people expect from the economists is beyond the power of any mortal man."  Ludwig Von Mises

More Von Mises quotes here

The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

                              

                                          Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                                     email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance].

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

An Important Question For You, Dear Reader :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via the makeup of your own current savings/investment plans and choices? [or via the choices of your financial planner, investment advisor, or via an economist or related?] If so, then you are unknowingly endangering your long term savings.

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples:

The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For The Stock Market:

                    Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, 5 year performance [log. scale]

Real World Fact:  If you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

2] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Gold :

                  10 year Gold bullion $US price per 1 oz. London A.M. fix [log. scale]

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver etc. might actually all decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

3] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Cash and Cash Equivalents [TreasuryBonds,Bills etc.]:

                              30 year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates 2000 -2019

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

4] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Bitcoin and other Crypto-Currencies:

                                           Bitcoins per $US, 2015-19

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

5] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Real Estate, Art, Oil, a Private Business  etc. etc.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

6] : One More Real World Fact :  

Despite the fact that the big picture economic future must always remain unknown, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 


Financial Safety Services disclaimer

email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

                              Extra graphs of possible interest: 

                    Federal Reserve Monetary Base[ MB] 2014-19 [ Log. scale]

                   US Government 3 month Treasury Bill interest rates 1980-2018

                          U.S government gross debt, 1980-2019 [log. scale]

Percentage of US Federal debt held by foreign institutions,1980-2019, 

[log. scale]

Financial Safety Services disclaimer

             email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.]

 Financial Safety Services Disclaimer 

Got Money You Can Afford to Lose? Or: How to Safely Profit In Stocks, Bonds,Gold, Crypto-Currencies etc.

FREE! Financial Safety Services Free All-Weather Speculation Suggestions!:

Step 1: Divide your total savings to date into 2 "piles" :

[a] money you cannot afford to lose,

and...

[b] money you can afford to lose.

Got No Money You Could Afford To Lose?

If you have no money you could afford to lose, don't worry, just ignore all of the speculative suggestions given below. Do not speculate with money you cannot afford to lose! 

Much more importantly, the money you cannot afford to lose needs to be safe, in a neutrally balanced,  long term, non-predictive savings plan similar to this one.

If you still wish to speculate [ in whatever], in order to get money you could realistically afford to lose [if you do not have any at the present time], you are first going to have to acquire, earn, save/put money aside that is in excess of current needs and expenditures and long term savings requirements.

 Got Money You Could Afford To Lose?

Use only money you can realistically afford to lose for any of the following speculative ideas. These suggestions are for pure speculations [i.e. bets, or gambles] - I'll say it again: don't risk any money you cannot realistically afford to lose, _EVER_.

Got it yet? :-) .

Banking Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that a banking crisis is coming?

Suggestion: buy put options* on bank stocks 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

 Inflation Ahead?

Do you believe that inflation is coming?

Suggestion: buy gold or call options* on gold, 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Recession Ahead?

Do you believe that a recession coming?

Suggestion: buy put options* on stocks or stock indices 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Government Debt Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that the debt crisis is going out of control?

Suggestion: buy put options* on government bonds 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

False Alarm Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that a false alarm "crisis" is coming?

Suggestion: buy junk bonds - which should profit considerably when interest rates fall sharply 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Everything's going to Be A O.K.?

Do you believe that the economy will "muddle through" somehow?

Suggestion: buy stocks of companies you believe would most profit 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Deflation Ahead?

Do you believe that a deflation is coming?

Suggestion: Buy 30 year US treasury bonds, or the equivalent if you are not living in the US 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

*An option is a security that profits if a stock, stock index, or whatever, goes up [ call option] or down [put option]. As options have very short lives, typically no more than 9 months, they usually expire worthless. Therefor any speculation made with "play money" via options should only utilize a small part of the "play money" total, otherwise you could lose all of that "play money" within a few months.

Regards, onebornfree. Quesions/comments:  onebornfreeatyahoodotcom.

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