The World's Best Kept Investment Secret

                              

                                          Financial Safety Services disclaimer

                                     email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

Real world fact [1] : [aka "the world's best kept investment secret"]:

No one can consistently and accurately predict "big picture" future economic events and scenarios. No investment advisor, no money manager, no economist, no politician, no fortune teller- not even you :-) [although any one of these, including yourself, might get it right on occasion, purely by chance].

For various underlying, fundamental reasons, the "big picture" financial and economic future must always remain unknown.

An Important Question For You, Dear Reader :

Despite the fact that the economic future cannot be reliably/consistently be predicted by anyone, are you, dear reader, unwittingly trying to predict the economic future via the makeup of your own current savings/investment plans and choices? [or via the choices of your financial planner, investment advisor, or via an economist or related?] If so, then you are unknowingly endangering your long term savings.

Let me try to illustrate my question by examples:

The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For The Stock Market:

                    Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, 5 year performance [log. scale]

Real World Fact:  If you have most of/all of your savings in stocks, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Stocks might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

2] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Gold :

                  10 year Gold bullion $US price per 1 oz. London A.M. fix [log. scale]

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in gold/silver bullion, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Gold and silver etc. might actually all decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

3] The Real-World, Unknowable Outlook For Cash and Cash Equivalents [TreasuryBonds,Bills etc.]:

                              30 year U.S. Treasury bond interest rates 2000 -2019

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in cash and related [eg long term government bonds], then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cash and related might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

4] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Bitcoin and other Crypto-Currencies:

                                           Bitcoins per $US, 2015-19

Real World Fact: If you have most of/all of your savings in Bitcoin and related, then you are [perhaps unwittingly] predicting the certainty of an economic environment in the course of your lifetime which will increase the value of your savings, when in actual fact there can be no guarantee that that environment will actually occur. Cryptocurrences like Bitcoin might actually decrease in value relative to everything else over the course of your remaining lifetime!

5] The Real-World, Unknowable,  Outlook For Real Estate, Art, Oil, a Private Business  etc. etc.

The exact same principle applies if you have most of your savings/investments tied up in real estate, art, a business, oil, or anything else. As always, the future remains unknown/uncertain. There are [and can be] no guarantees that any of these other investment choices will increase in value relative to everything else over the course of your lifetime!

6] : One More Real World Fact :  

Despite the fact that the big picture economic future must always remain unknown, it is still possible to easily protect the future value of your savings against the ravages of an unknown future.

See: Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.] 


Financial Safety Services disclaimer

email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

                              Extra graphs of possible interest: 

                    Federal Reserve Monetary Base[ MB] 2014-19 [ Log. scale]

                   US Government 3 month Treasury Bill interest rates 1980-2018

                          U.S government gross debt, 1980-2019 [log. scale]

Percentage of US Federal debt held by foreign institutions,1980-2019, 

[log. scale]

Financial Safety Services disclaimer

             email: onebornfree at yahoo dot com

George Soros Versus "The World's Best Kept Investment Secret"

George Soros Versus "The World's Best Kept Investment Secret":

Financial Safety Services disclaimer

[n.b. this post is in no way an endorsement by myself of Mr. Soros, nor of his  personal political philosophy and goals]

Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services commentary: 

Now you might think that a person as rich as Mr Soros would have access to the best financial/investment advice in the world, but apparently not. He's reported to have lost around $1 billion in the Brexit outcome, and another $1 billion betting against the "Trump bump" [ the temporary increase in US stock indices after Trumps win]. He obviously has no idea of what amounts to "the world's best kept investment secret". Any reader out there who personally knows Mr Soros :-) ; please ask him to contact me so I can enlighten/elucidate him on that secret, so that he would never again suffer these types of losses. :

George Soros lost nearly $1 billion when Donald Trump won:

"Billionaire hedge-fund manager and Hillary Clinton supporter George Soros bet against the stock market’s reaction to the election of President-elect Donald Trump and lost almost $1 billion in the process, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday"............:
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/01/13 ... trump-won/

"The Trump Bump": The Standard & Poors 500 Index- October 2016 -January 2017

[Click on image to enlarge]

"How George Soros Lost Money In a Bad Brexit Bet":

"Perhaps George Soros should go back into retirement.

It appears the 85-year-old lost money betting that the British pound would rise in the wake of the Brexit vote. A Soros spokesperson confirm to Bloomberg that the octogenarian's fund was "long" the pound even after the vote. The fact that Soros lost money betting on the pound is surprising not only because he famously made a billion dollars "breaking the pound" back in 1992, but also because he predicting a drop in the sterling would happen...": http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/soros-pound-brexit/

British Pound/ $US Exchange Rates, June 01, 2016 - January 2017 [Click on image to enlarge]

["Brexit" referendum was held on 23 June 2016]

Can't Afford To Lose Big Like Mr Soros, Dear Reader? 

To perhaps entirely avoid your own financial ruin, please go  here for free information!

                      Above: US Standard and Poors 500 Index, '07-'17. [Click on image to enlarge]

Regards, Onebornfree
onebornfreeatyahoodotcom.
Financial Safety Services disclaimer

Got Money You Can Afford To Lose?[How to Safely Profit In Stocks,Gold,Crypto's etc.]

 Financial Safety Services Disclaimer 

Got Money You Can Afford to Lose? Or: How to Safely Profit In Stocks, Bonds,Gold, Crypto-Currencies etc.

FREE! Financial Safety Services Free All-Weather Speculation Suggestions!:

Step 1: Divide your total savings to date into 2 "piles" :

[a] money you cannot afford to lose,

and...

[b] money you can afford to lose.

Got No Money You Could Afford To Lose?

If you have no money you could afford to lose, don't worry, just ignore all of the speculative suggestions given below. Do not speculate with money you cannot afford to lose! 

Much more importantly, the money you cannot afford to lose needs to be safe, in a neutrally balanced,  long term, non-predictive savings plan similar to this one.

If you still wish to speculate [ in whatever], in order to get money you could realistically afford to lose [if you do not have any at the present time], you are first going to have to acquire, earn, save/put money aside that is in excess of current needs and expenditures and long term savings requirements.

 Got Money You Could Afford To Lose?

Use only money you can realistically afford to lose for any of the following speculative ideas. These suggestions are for pure speculations [i.e. bets, or gambles] - I'll say it again: don't risk any money you cannot realistically afford to lose, _EVER_.

Got it yet? :-) .

Banking Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that a banking crisis is coming?

Suggestion: buy put options* on bank stocks 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

 Inflation Ahead?

Do you believe that inflation is coming?

Suggestion: buy gold or call options* on gold, 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Recession Ahead?

Do you believe that a recession coming?

Suggestion: buy put options* on stocks or stock indices 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Government Debt Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that the debt crisis is going out of control?

Suggestion: buy put options* on government bonds 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

False Alarm Crisis Ahead?

Do you believe that a false alarm "crisis" is coming?

Suggestion: buy junk bonds - which should profit considerably when interest rates fall sharply 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Everything's going to Be A O.K.?

Do you believe that the economy will "muddle through" somehow?

Suggestion: buy stocks of companies you believe would most profit 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

Deflation Ahead?

Do you believe that a deflation is coming?

Suggestion: Buy 30 year US treasury bonds, or the equivalent if you are not living in the US 

[ using only money you can afford to lose].

*An option is a security that profits if a stock, stock index, or whatever, goes up [ call option] or down [put option]. As options have very short lives, typically no more than 9 months, they usually expire worthless. Therefor any speculation made with "play money" via options should only utilize a small part of the "play money" total, otherwise you could lose all of that "play money" within a few months.

Regards, onebornfree. Quesions/comments:  onebornfreeatyahoodotcom.

 Financial Safety Services Disclaimer

Long Term Savings Plan Results Update [1972- 2011]

[Financial Safety Services commentary: this is a repost of an article posted here a number of years ago, the only difference being that the results for the Long Term Savings plan  have now been updated to show results through 2011, instead of ending at 2004. Regards, onebornfree.]

Email Financial Safety Services/onebornfree: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom]

Fig.1: Long-term savings plan results 1972-2011, starting with 

                                              a $10,000 investment in the plan.                                                                      

[Click on image to enlarge] .

                   N.B. : numerical results for this chart are given at the bottom of this page.
                           

                 Graph Key:

  

            = Long term savings plan

..............      = Stocks

- - - - - - -   =   Bonds

- - - - - - - -   =  Gold

                                        - - - - - - - -  =  Cash

Financial Safety and Investment Truth That You Don't Want to Hear:

Financial Safety Rule #1 says: " despite many claims to the contrary, no one, not even your favorite economist or investment advisor, can reliably, and consistently, predict future economic events."

That being the case, in order to broadly protect your savings from unforeseen and unforeseeable economic events/scenarios, you must take two very important steps:

Financial Safety Step [1]:

divide your savings into two distinct, not to be mixed, categories:

a] money that you cannot afford to lose.

b] money you can afford to lose.

If you have no money for category [b], don't worry, it is not as important, category [a] is much more important as it will contain long term savings for retirement etc.

Financial Safety Step [2]:

having completed step [1], you must then set about constructing a long term savings plan for the money you cannot afford to lose [a], one that broadly self-protects/ insures itself against unforeseen economic events [i.e recession, deflation,hyper inflation etc.] as far as possible without you having to do any daily, weekly or monthly buying, selling or trading, and without the need for you to make predictions about future economic events, and which boasts the inflation beating results shown in the graph above for the long-term savings plan that I have personally recommended for more than 20 years, and that is, at the same time, also able to automatically profit from those unforeseen "economic good times" if and when they occur in that unknown future.

This plan has produced annual gains averaging between 6-9% above the annual rate of inflation for 30 + years, with no buying or selling involved outside a once per end of the year buy/sell re-adjustment to restore percentage allocations for each investment class back to their original, beginning of year allocations .

If you are seriously interested in such a long term savings plan, let me know.*

Do You Have Money You Can Afford To Lose?

Also, if after taking financial safety steps 1] and 2] you find that you have money that you can afford to lose [category [b]], and need some guidelines for safe speculation, let me know.

For more truth that you probably don't want to know, stay tuned to this blog!

Regards,Onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

                                                                                                                         Total Return                Growth with

     Year          Stocks               Bonds          Cash       Gold            Long -Term                         Long- Term

                                                                                                                  Savings Plan                 Savings Plan

  

More About Financial Safety Services

Financial Safety Services Disclaimer

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

Nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large. Internet posts are therfor not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I likewise have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make at this site they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!

onebornfreeatyahoodotcom

More About "Onebornfree":

"Onebornfree" is a personal freedom consultant and a musician. He can be reached at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom  .

Onebornfree  Blogs: 

                                                                                         
 Onebornfree's Financial Safety blog[ Investment philosophy blog]

Onebornfree's 9/11Research Review blog[ A personal review of the state of 9/11 research]

Onebornfree's Freedom Network Mythbusters blog

The Freedom Network [ home page for the Freedom Network]

The Problem-Solver [Personal Freedom consulting]

Music Info: 

Onebornfree's [aka Fake-Eye D"] Music channel [Studio mixes + live solo recordings]

Fake Eye D's soundCloud channel [ no videos, so faster download]

The Invisible Hand [Always] Strikes Back

[Financial Safety Services commentary:  a good article from Anthony Wile of  "The Daily Bell" follows below this commentary. Mr Wile is commenting on the idea, still being promoted by the establishment financial media, that the traditional "buy and hold" strategy for stocks is still reliable, and he zero's in on a recent Bloomberg article  that unabashedly promotes the traditional "buy and hold" concept that had seemed to work so well for both Wall Street and the proverbial " man on the street"  till around 2000 or so.  

Invisible hand vs. All-seeing eye

Of course, the truth of the matter is that "The Invisible Hand" , is always striking back and correcting capital misallocations. This effectively means that the economic future can never be reliably and consistently predicted. 

Meaning, if you take Mr Wile's "gloom and doom"/continuing bull markets for gold and other "hard" assets predictions seriously, bet on them all only using money you can safely afford to lose- in other words,  speculate in those markets you believe Mr Wile predictions will benefit, don't invest in them long term with money you cannot afford to lose.

 Likewise for any believed stock market boom  predictions by the likes of Bloomberg etc. - remember that these  future prosperity predictions have just as much chance of being right or wrong as do Mr Wile's {or any one else's} "gloom and doom" scenarios. 

And by the way money you cannot afford to lose should, as usual, always be kept in a long- term savings plan that has no bias towards any particular economic future, and that is instead designed to make a small profit regardless of what the economic future may hold: a stock market boom, a deflationary collapse, continued recession, or whatever. 

On the other hand, should you be lucky enough to have money you can afford to lose should events move against you, then stock market index option   "calls" [if you believe the stock market is headed upwards from here], or index option "puts", or "shorts" [if you believe the market has peaked and will shortly collapse], or maybe other similar simple arrangements that might also bring you profit should your bet be correct, [ with suitable "buy in" points and automatic sell prices and other safety measures firmly in place] , might be the way the to go. Or, if you feel [i.e."know"] that Mr Wile is correct, then buy gold bullion. 

Happy speculating! {with the money you can afford to lose, that is}] Regards, Financial Safety Services.

Saturday, December 29, 2012 – by Anthony Wile 

"Bloomberg has posted an article entitled "Americans Miss $200 Billion [by] Abandoning Stocks" that is presumably supposed to illustrate the folly of avoiding equities but in my view merely illustrates the difficulty of sustaining this meme.

And make no mistake, it IS a meme.

The idea that one can simply buy and hold equities like family heirlooms was always suspect and is more-so now. That's because people simply cannot internalize the reality of a failing economy and a booming stock market. The cognitive dissonance makes them wary.

Thanks to what we call the Internet Reformation, many people are much savvier about how the market works and the way the economy behaves. Such individuals are not apt to assume that the US recession is over just because the mainstream media proclaims it is so. They are nervous and not easily willing to dump large amounts of cash into the stock market.

Who can blame them?

This doesn't stop Bloomberg from launching articles like this one. The idea of course – the dominant social theme if you will – is that investing is frightening but those with a strong stomach can become wealthy if they just "stay the course." Here's more:

Americans have missed out on almost $200 billion of stock gains as they drained money from the market in the past four years, haunted by the financial crisis ...

Assets in equity mutual, exchange-traded and closed-end funds increased about 85 percent to $5.6 trillion since the bull market began in March 2009, trailing the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 94 percent advance.

The retreat shows that even the biggest gain since 1998 failed to heal investor confidence after the financial collapse that wiped out $11 trillion in U.S. equity value was followed by record price swings in equities, a market breakdown that briefly erased $862 billion in share value and the slowest recovery from a recession since World War II. Individuals are withdrawing money as political leaders struggle to avert budget cuts that threaten to throw the economy into a new slump.

"Our biggest liability in the stock market has been the total destruction to confidence," James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion, said in a telephone interview. "There's just so much evidence of this recovery broadening." ...

Individuals have also seen evidence that computerized trading is making stock markets less reliable. An equity rout temporarily sent the Dow down almost 1,000 points on May 6, 2010, causing investors to question the stability of market mechanics and the effectiveness of regulators.

Botched IPOs for Facebook Inc. (FB) and Bats Global Markets Inc. earlier this year led to concern about trading and exchange technology, while Knight Capital Group Inc. nearly went out of business in August after it bombarded U.S. equity exchanges with erroneous orders in the wake of improperly installed software that malfunctioned.

"Whether it's the flash crash, the low-growth economy, unemployment, uncertainty about jobs -- those things just don't engender any desire to risk money," Walter "Bucky" Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion of assets at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said in a phone interview. "Investors say: The stock market? I don't have a clue as to how it works anymore."

Those who have organized modern equity markets have no one to blame but themselves. While certain stocks (especially small stocks) may offer legitimate promise, the larger marketplace is seen as unreliable. Too much has been passed off as legitimate that is not.

And many investors have internalized the disconnect between the economy and stock market performance. The Federal Reserve's tremendous money printing has boosted stock prices over the past four years, but this has only illustrated the control that the elites exercise over investment activities.
Facebook was the big story of 2012, but its wretched overpricing and downright weird business model had investors scratching their heads. The suspicion that US intelligence agencies had a hand in both the IPO and the company itself didn't help Facebook's cause.

The Flash Crash received a good bit of attention, making investors aware – as they had never been before – of how quickly stock valuations could change. But it's really quantitative easing that is the outstanding issue – the one that Bloomberg chooses to present without properly explaining the mechanism.

There is generally a great deal of talk about how stock markets and stocks themselves are value-oriented investments. But what is clear to many people is how close the market came to a meltdown in 2007-2008. The system proved a good deal more fragile than people have been led to expect.

Couple that with the Fed's ongoing money-printing that has literally doubled equity values and you get increasing resistance to the whole idea of stock investing. First people are frightened by the breakdown of the system itself and then they are exposed to ongoing – "industrial strength" – monetary manipulation.

What do those in the industry expect? What do elites that have built up the modern stock market believe people will do with their money? People "get it" ... and not in a good way. The Age of Promotion is waning in the setting of a waxing monetary expansion that was aided and abetted by mainstream media misdirection for decades. Too bad.

Once the Great Depression hit, people gradually stopped investing in stocks. Even after World War II, there was no appreciable action in US equities. NYSE officials ended up going on road shows in the 1950s to tout the benefits of stocks and stock-market investing.

At the time, the markets were ripe for US stocks. The US dominated the world, which had been mostly destroyed by the war. US industry was ascending and US power was at an all time high. People who invested in stocks were amply rewarded.

That's simply not the case today. US debt is in the tens, even hundreds, of trillions. The dollar itself is increasingly looked upon with suspicion around the world and its reserve status may be in jeopardy.
Perhaps most questionable from an investment standpoint is the money that has already been released by central banks in order to stimulate the economy. Much of this currency remains trapped in bank coffers, but it will circulate eventually.

The circulation of these trillions will cause tremendous price inflation – that will in turn result in significant interest rate hikes. As in the 1970s, these rate hikes will damp the recovery (to put it mildly), and stock prices as well.

I haven't even touched on the so-called fiscal cliff, which I believe will be resolved one way or another without the entirety of its tax-and-spend burden being implemented. But it, too, illustrates just how vulnerable equities are to outside political forces and their potential impact on the economy.
The past five years have shown investors clearly that stocks are NOT the proverbial "sure thing." There are good stocks, of course. There are good investments.

But this Bloomberg article is focusing on the wrong argument. The powers-that-be may wish to encourage stock investing, but reminding people of how far down the markets have traveled, and how extensively they have been manipulated by central bankers is not the way to do it.

The road to recovery for many kinds of equities will be a long and hard one. Even gold and silver stocks will struggle. The problem is that reality has caught up to the promotion. The market itself has struck back.

Of course one can argue, as we do, that the current US stock behavior – and modern downturns – have been in a sense planned by the powers-that-be for a variety of reasons, mostly having to do with impending global governance. But it is also obvious that Money Power seeks a continual "buy in" to the systems it has created and implemented.

This time, people aren't buying. Despite all their power, the elites are still at the mercy of the Invisible Hand and the natural laws that govern us all. It will be nice to watch the Internet Reformation swing the pendulum back in the direction of truth." 

Article source

FINANCIAL SAFETY SERVICES DISCLAIMER:

Financial Safety Services is NOT an investment advisory service. Financial Safety Services is an educational service that teaches the interested individual non-original [i.e. invented by others far more intelligent than myself], time-tested safe methods/principles that might be successfully used by the individual for relatively low risk speculations in various financial markets.

ACCURACY OF INFORMATION : Financial Safety Services MAKES NO CLAIMS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY INFORMATION EITHER GIVEN AT THIS BLOG SITE, OR IN PERSON TO PAYING CLIENTS. All information given/sold, must be understood to have been acted on AT THE INDIVIDUALS OWN RISK .

********************************************************************

More About Financial Safety Services

[Free phone consultations via "Skype". To set a time/date email: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom ]

Financial Safety Services is a private , mostly off-line, international, person to person consulting service that attempts to show its real-time [i.e. non-internet derived] clients how to speculate safely with money that they can afford to lose. Money that the client cannot afford to lose should never be risked in these speculations

For more than 20 years, nearly all of Financial Safety Services clients to date have been found via direct [i.e off-line, in-person] referral from previously satisfied clients only.

No attempts are made to procure clientele via the selling of the sporadic, deliberately incomplete online information posted at this site. All valuable information is sold to clients, via e-mail, or preferably in person, on a "need to know" customized basis, depending on their specific speculative wants/needs.

Therefor any/all posts at this site are for the reference and possible benefit of pre-existing , real-world, paying clients only as part of my services [and to perhaps help emphasize a particular point I make to them in private], and never for the benefit of the general reading public and casual internet reader at large.

Internet posts arer not made on a regular schedule in order to build an on-line audience; only when I feel that so doing is beneficial to my actual existing clientele.

I have no interest in gaining clients first hand from any posts made either here or elsewhere [if it happens, it happens!] - as i previously stated, to date [20 years+], nearly all of my previous clients have come to me via direct, in-person referral from other satisfied clients- that is, [1]an existing client personally recommends my services to a close friend, [2] the friend contacts me, [3]we discuss their wants/needs, [4] I make a decision as to whether or not I can really help them, [5] We come to a financial agreement- or not :-) .

None- Client Questions?

Should a casual reader/none client have a serious question about an assertion I make on this site, they must write to me at: onebornfreeatyahoodotcom and I will do my best to answer their question. Their first question will usually be answered for free. After that, fees may apply.

Current Client Questions.

All existing, paying client questions are of course, answered for free [usually via private e-mail]- it is part of the service!

onebornfreeatyahoodotcom